Burford Capital Limited (BUR): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Burford Capital Limited on Value Investors Club by gary9. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BUR. Burford Capital Limited's share was trading at $11.69 as of June 27^th. BUR’s trailing and forward P/E were 7.78 and 9.68       respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Burford Capital Ltd. (BUR), the pioneer and market leader in litigation finance, offers a rare long-term investment opportunity for those seeking a multi-decade compounder. Founded in 2009, BUR has built a dominant position in a niche industry poised for structural growth, with 15 years of consistent profitability and an impressive 87% ROIC on over $3.3B in cumulative realizations.

Led by aligned co-founders Chris Bogart and Jon Molot, BUR benefits from superior deal sourcing, underwriting rigor (93% success rate), and capital access, all of which form an enduring competitive moat. Despite relatively low industry entry barriers, replicating BUR’s scale, credibility, and relationships remains highly unlikely.

Litigation finance, though still small relative to the $1T legal services market, is rapidly gaining acceptance among corporates and law firms. BUR projects double-digit growth in new commitments and has already diversified into adjacent high-return areas like law firm private equity. The firm’s $7.4B portfolio is expected to deliver $4.5B in modeled realizations over the next three years, translating to $300M+ in annual run-rate earnings.

Crucially, this does not include the YPF case, a $6.5B judgment against Argentina that BUR carries at $1.5B and believes is likely to resolve favorably within two years. This embedded optionality provides significant upside, with minimal downside due to its conservative valuation. Trading at 1.3x TBV and 9.3x estimated 2025 earnings, BUR’s valuation fails to reflect its durable moat and cash-generative model. For patient investors, BUR represents a deeply mispriced asset with meaningful upside potential—worthy of a 20-year hold.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Burford Capital Limited by Coughlin Capital in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s leadership in litigation finance, strong underwriting, and upside from the YPF case. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 18% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as the business remains fundamentally strong.Gary9 shares a similar view but emphasizes long-term compounding potential.

BUR isn't on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of BUR as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.