Nutrien's Shares Rally 36% YTD: What's Driving the Stock?

Nutrien Ltd.’s NTR shares have popped 35.9% year to date. The company has also outperformed the industry’s 34% rise and the S&P 500’s roughly 6.8% increase over the same period.

Let’s take a look at the factors that are driving this fertilizer maker.

Nutrien Gains on Fertilizer Demand and Cost Savings

Nutrien is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for fertilizers, fueled by strong global agricultural markets. The company is experiencing robust fertilizer demand in its primary regions, supported by high crop commodity prices, which are expected to remain elevated through 2025 due to limited inventory levels.

Potash demand is projected to rise globally, driven by better farm economics, increased affordability and low stock levels. The phosphate market is also seeing a boost from strong global demand and low inventories among producers and distributors. Meanwhile, nitrogen fertilizer demand remains solid in major markets like North America, India and Brazil, with a rebound in industrial nitrogen use further contributing to growth. Nutrien anticipates increased U.S. corn acreage in 2025.

Nutrien is also expected to benefit from its acquisition strategy and the growing adoption of its digital platform. The company is steadily expanding its footprint in Brazil through targeted acquisitions and plans to pursue strategic opportunities within its core markets. A portion of its free cash flow has been allocated for growth investments, including targeted retail acquisitions in 2025.

Efforts to enhance efficiency and cut costs are expected to further strengthen the company’s performance. Nutrien remains focused on lowering production costs in its potash segment and has undertaken several initiatives to reduce controllable expenses and boost free cash flow. These accelerated efficiency measures are projected to generate nearly $200 million in savings by 2025.

Nutrien’s earnings estimates have moved up over the past month. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings has increased 6.2%, while estimates for the second quarter have been raised 3%.

NTR’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

NTR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Better-ranked stocks in the basic materials space include Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM and Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. ASM.

Carpenter Technology currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). CRS beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 11.1%. The company's shares have soared 43.3% in the past year. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Agnico Eagle’s current-year earnings is pegged at $1.61 per share. AEM, carrying a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 12.3%. The company's shares have rallied 74.4% in the past year.

Avino Silver, which currently carries a Zacks Rank #1, beat the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. In this time frame, it delivered an earnings surprise of roughly 104.1%, on average. ASM's shares have rallied 330% in the past year.

 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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