Big Week of Inflation Data, Q2 Earnings Reports

Monday, July 14, 2025

Pre-market futures are notably lower than Friday afternoon’s close on all major indexes, though they are beginning to climb out of the muck of fresh tariff threats as early trading warms up to start a new trading week. We had gotten back up to or near record market highs last week before new tariff threats from President Trump threw a damp towel over stock market heat.

Last Friday, Trump threatened to slap a new +35% tariff on all Canadian imports to the U.S. On Saturday, he went even further — a new +30% tariff was announced on both the EU and Mexico. These would reportedly be enacted if no new trade deals are settled between the U.S. and these trading partners by August 1st, which is two weeks from Friday.

Over $99 billion in revenues have so far been collected from tariff policy so far, up more than +110% from a year ago, when Joe Biden was still president. However, should these new, more draconian levels of tariffs hit a high number of imports, economists worry the domestic economy will feel uncommon stress and strain, and likely cause prices to raise on these goods as companies pass costs onto consumers in their determination to remain profitable in such an environment.

We know that much of these threats are motivational in nature: back on April 9th, when Trump paused his “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, he expected that at the end of that term that the U.S. would have established new trade policies with our main trading partners. But these have not come to pass as of this morning. 

Aside from a signed deal with the UK — which remains incomplete, with the issue of a +50% tariff on imported steel still unresolved — and a preliminary deal with China regarding rare earth materials, the U.S. has no new trade deals. That 90-day window closed last week without incident; the next “deadline” is August 1st, but will the president once again kick the can down the road?
 

What to Expect from the Stock Market This Week

Last week was also very light on economic data — monthly reports and quarterly earnings releases — but this week changes all that. Not only do we look forward to the biggest of the Wall Street banks reporting Q2 earnings, but a whole host of economic prints, including a fresh Inflation Rate for the month of June, are expected to be released.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), monthly retail and wholesale pricing metrics, will be reported Tuesday and Wednesday morning, respectively. The year-over-year headline CPI number is also known as the “Inflation Rate,” which is expected to climb to +2.7% from +2.4% reported a month ago. PPI year-over-year headline is expected to tick down to +2.6% from +2.7% reported last month.

Also, Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing reports come out, as well as Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, Homebuilder Confidence, and Housing Starts/Building Permits. We’ll know much more by the end of this week about the state of our economy than we do presently.

Also, JPMorgan JPM, Citigroup C and Wells Fargo WFC are the big banks reporting earnings Tuesday before the opening bell. Later in the week, we’ll hear from Bank of America BAC and Goldman Sachs GS, as well. Aside from banks reporting, we’ll also hear from Netflix NFLX, Johnson & Johnson JNJ, 3M MMM, among many others. (You can see the full Zacks Earnings Calendar here.)

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