Lamb Weston Q4 Earnings on Horizon: What Surprise Awaits Investors?

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) is likely to register a decline in its bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on July 23. The consensus mark for earnings has moved down a penny in the past 30 days to 64 cents per share, indicating a decline of 18% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Lamb Weston’s top line is likely to fall year over year in the fiscal fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.59 billion, which indicates a 1.2% drop from the year-ago quarter.

LW has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 11.5%, on average. Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Things to Consider About Lamb Weston’s Upcoming Results

Lamb Weston has been witnessing a tough operating environment, including sluggish restaurant traffic, customer share losses and overcapacity in the global market, all of which are impacting its volume performance. Additionally, the company is facing pricing pressure, rising operating costs and intensified competition, all of which have been weighing on its price/mix performance.

Rising manufacturing costs on input cost inflation, particularly increased raw potato prices, along with operational inefficiencies and elevated transportation and warehousing expenses, continue to weigh on the company’s performance. In addition, it is experiencing pricing pressure and heightened competitive pressures, which are affecting its price/mix. Our model forecasts a 2.5% decline in price/mix for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025. We expect adjusted EBITDA to reach $250.8 million, marking an 11.5% decline for the to-be-reported quarter.

Despite these hurdles, Lamb Weston has been seeing positive outcomes from its Restructuring Plan, which is focused on improving efficiency and profitability. In addition, the company is modernizing its manufacturing capabilities to further optimize operations. The continuation of these trends bodes well for the to-be-reported quarter.

Earnings Whispers for LW Stock

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Lamb Weston this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Lamb Weston currently has an Earnings ESP of -3.27% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

TreeHouse Foods (THS) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.42% and a Zacks Rank of 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $788.8 million, which is almost flat with the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TreeHouse Foods’ second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 11 cents, down 62.1% with the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. THS has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 58.8%, on average.

Sysco (SYY) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.25% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register an increase in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SYY’s quarterly EPS is pegged at $1.40, up 0.7% from the year-ago period. SYY has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 2.4%, on average.

The consensus estimate for Sysco’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $21 billion, which implies an increase of 2.1% from the prior-year quarter.

Monster Beverage (MNST) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.42% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is expected to register growth in its top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MNST’s quarterly earnings has been stable in the last 30 days at 48 cents per share, indicating 17.1% growth from the year-ago quarter's number.

The consensus estimate for Monster Beverage’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.1 billion, implying a rise of 9.4% from the figure in the prior-year quarter. MNST reported a negative earnings surprise of 4.1%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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