ExxonMobil vs. ConocoPhillips: Which Stock Looks Stronger Today?

In the energy sector, Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM and ConocoPhillips COP are two major players. Over the past year, XOM has lost 1.1% and COP declined 11.8%. Although rising trade tensions create uncertainty in energy demand, the long-term outlook for these energy giants is likely to be positive. However, before making any investment decisions, let’s examine the fundamentals of both companies.

One-Year Price Chart

XOM’s Integrated Business & COP’s Sole Upstream Focus

ExxonMobil is among the largest integrated energy players in the world, with its operations comprising upstream and downstream activities. Apart from exploration and production activities, XOM is also a leading refiner and marketer of refining products. It has a strong footprint in the chemical business as well. Thus, being a large integrated energy player, XOM’s business is diversified and hence is not entirely exposed to volatility in oil and natural gas prices.

Conversely, ConocoPhillips’ business relies heavily on exploration and production activities, making it more vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices. The upstream major has a significant presence in prolific shale plays such as Eagle Ford, Bakken and Permian Basin. In the Permian, XOM also has a strong presence. In fact, with a strong focus on strengthening its presence in the Permian, ExxonMobil completed the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources Company on May 3, 2024.

ExxonMobil’s Dividend is More Reliable

With a diversified business model, ExxonMobil has been successfully returning capital to shareholders. Over the past 42 years, the integrated major has consecutively increased its per-share dividend payments at an average annual rate of 5.8%. This means that at all phases of the business cycle over the decades, XOM has rewarded shareholders with dividend hikes, suggesting stable operations.

Conversely, ConocoPhillips also distributes dividends. However, in 2016, when oil prices declined, it was forced to reduce its dividend by 66%.

XOM & COP: Which Stock is Better?

Coming to the valuation story, it seems that investors are willing to pay a premium for XOM compared to COP. This is reflected in ExxonMobil’s current trailing 12-month enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio of 6.81 compared with COP’s 5.28.

Considering the backdrop, investors who are risk-averse and prefer companies with stable businesses can continue to hold XOM stock. On the other hand, those willing to take on the risk of extreme commodity price volatility may choose to retain COP stock. Both companies carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

In conclusion, both ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips have seen upward revisions in their 2025 earnings estimates over the past week, indicating that both stocks are worth holding, depending on an investor’s risk tolerance.  

XOM’s 2025 Earnings Estimate Revisions

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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