Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Eli Lilly and Company on Stock Analysis Compilation’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on LLY. Eli Lilly and Company's share was trading at $798.89 as of July 23^rd. LLY’s trailing and forward P/E were 65.00 and 36.63 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Eli Lilly remains a compelling investment opportunity, underpinned by strong financial performance, leadership in the fast-growing GLP-1 market, and a transformative oral GLP-1 pipeline. Despite a ~10% drop in share price following its earnings report, Lilly posted robust results—revenue surged 45% and EPS rose 29% year-on-year, both ahead of estimates.

The downward revision in full-year EPS guidance was tied to a one-off charge related to the acquisition of an oral cancer program and does not affect the long-term thesis. On the same day, CVS’s exclusive deal with Novo Nordisk—a competitor also held—added near-term noise, but the structural opportunity remains intact.

GLP-1 penetration for obesity is still under 1%, while two-thirds of U.S. adults are overweight or obese, suggesting immense room for expansion in a weight-loss market expected to reach $100 billion by 2030. Lilly continues to gain share and is driving much of the category’s growth. Its direct self-pay vial model, already accounting for 25% of new U.S. prescriptions, allows it to bypass restrictive insurance coverage and preserve margins.

Looking ahead, Lilly’s oral GLP-1 asset, Orforglipron, represents a potential game changer. The once-daily pill showed strong Phase III results in type 2 diabetes, with further trials underway across obesity and related conditions. With no rival matching its oral efficacy, Lilly has a clear competitive edge. Pills also offer manufacturing and logistical advantages by eliminating injections and cold chain needs. With multiple pipeline catalysts expected in 2025 and structurally driven earnings growth, Lilly stands out as an innovative global healthcare leader positioned for durable returns.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) by Kontra in May 2025, which highlighted its dominance in obesity and diabetes, strong Q1 results, and pipeline catalysts like orforglipron. The company’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 0.60% since our coverage, as GLP-1 growth momentum persisted. The thesis still stands, and Stock Analysis Compilation shares a similar view, emphasizing Lilly’s transformative oral GLP-1 portfolio

Eli Lilly and Company is on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 119 hedge fund portfolios held LLY at the end of the first quarter which was 115 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of LLY as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.