Rising global trade tensions and fears over ballooning fiscal debt are driving investors toward safe-haven assets, strengthening gold’s position as a key refuge. This has led analysts in a Reuters poll to significantly raise their gold price forecasts, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.
Upgraded Gold Forecasts
In a recent poll of 40 analysts and traders, the median forecast for gold in 2025 rose to $3,220 per troy ounce from $3,065 in the previous survey. The 2026 projection climbed to $3,400, a notable increase from $3,000. Spot gold has already gained 27% year to date, hitting a record $3,500 per ounce in April as U.S.-China trade tensions intensified.
David Russell of GoldCore suggested that if concerns around U.S. fiscal policy deepen, gold could realistically reach $4,000 by end-2026, as quoted on Reuters.
Political and Fiscal Turmoil Fuel Demand
Investor demand for gold has also been driven by uncertainty over trade deadlines with major U.S. partners and growing fiscal fears. These were recently inflamed by the passage of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” expected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt, according to nonpartisan analysts, per the Reuters article.
Still, gold remains below its April highs. Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke noted that the market is undergoing a short-term consolidation, lacking an immediate catalyst to resume its rally, as quoted in the above-mentioned source.
However, the prospects for gold are still bright. Analysts point to central bank buying as a key driver behind gold’s continued strength, reflecting a broader strategy to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar. China has increased its gold reserves for eight successive months, while an ECB survey showed that nearly 40% of central banks are acquiring gold due to geopolitical risks.
ETFs in Focus
For investors looking to capitalize on this trend, gold ETFs, such as SPDR Gold Trust GLD, iShares Gold Trust IAU, SPDR Gold Minishares Trust of beneficial interest IAUM, and mining ETFs, such as VanEck Gold Miners ETF GDX, Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF SGDJ and iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF RING, offer attractive entry points (read: Why You Should Buy Gold Mining ETFs Now).
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SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): ETF Research Reports iShares Gold Trust (IAU): ETF Research Reports VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX): ETF Research Reports iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING): ETF Research Reports Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ): ETF Research ReportsThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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