Moderna to Report Q2 Earnings: Is a Beat in Store for the Stock?

We expect Moderna MRNA to surpass expectations when it reports second-quarter 2025 earnings on Aug. 1, before the opening bell. The company’s earnings beat estimates by 13.70% in the last reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $127 million and a loss of $2.99 per share, respectively.

Factors Shaping MRNA’s Upcoming Results

Moderna is likely to have generated a major portion of its revenues from selling its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. Our model estimate for the vaccine’s sales is pegged at $59 million, implying a significant decline from the year-ago level due to lower demand.

We expect minimal product sales of the company's RSV vaccine mResvia, which received FDA approval last year. We estimate mResvia sales at just $2 million, far below sales of competing RSV vaccines, Arexvy (marketed by GSK) and Abrysvo (Pfizer). The softer sales expectation is likely due to the vaccine being approved and recommended later in the contracting season.

Last month, the FDA granted label expansion to mResvia for use in high-risk adults aged 18-59. Just a couple of weeks after this approval, the CDC broadened its RSV vaccine recommendations for this respiratory virus season to include high-risk adults aged 50-59. The prior guidance recommended RSV vaccines for people aged 75 and older, as well as those aged between 60-74 who were at high risk of the disease. Investors might seek updates from the company regarding its plans for marketing both vaccines in the upcoming season.

A regulatory filing is currently under FDA review seeking label approval for updating Spikevax to target the LP.8.1 variant for the 2025-26 vaccination season. A similar regulatory filing is also under the EMA’s review, which recently received a positive recommendation from the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (“CHMP”). Investors would be keen to hear updates on the regulatory progress of these filings, including any feedback or requests for additional data from the FDA, during the upcoming earnings call.

Moderna is also evaluating several pipeline candidates in late-stage development. Last month, the company reported that a phase III efficacy study (P304) showed that its influenza vaccine candidate, mRNA-1010, achieved superior relative vaccine efficacy to an approved flu shot marketed by GSK. These results not only support potential approval of the standalone flu shot but also strengthen the case for refiling mRNA-1083, an investigational combination vaccine against COVID-19 and influenza. In May, Moderna voluntarily withdrew a filing with the FDA for mRNA-1083 after the agency requested additional efficacy data for the flu component. This candidate integrates the company’s COVID-19 shot with mRNA-1010. Investors are likely to watch for updates on refiling plans.

An important candidate in the company’s pipeline is intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy which is being developed in collaboration with Merck MRK. Moderna and Merck are evaluating the therapy in three pivotal phase III studies — one in the melanoma indication and the other two in the non-small cell lung cancer space. It is also being evaluated in clinical studies for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, renal cell carcinoma and muscle-invasive bladder cancer indications. Investors might seek an update on the Merck-partnered therapy’s progress across these studies.

MRNA’s Earnings Surprise History

The biotech firm’s performance has been impressive over the past four quarters. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 31.60%.

Year to date, Moderna’s shares have declined 18% against the industry’s 2% growth.

What Our Model Predicts for MRNA

Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Moderna has an Earnings ESP of +7.22% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some other biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat onearnings this time around:

BioNTech BNTX currently has an Earnings ESP of +127.01% and a Zacks Rank of #1.

BNTX stock has lost 1% year to date. It beat on earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other one, delivering an average surprise of 56.47%. BioNTech intends to report Q2 earnings on Aug. 4, before the opening bell.

Exact Sciences EXAS has an Earnings ESP of +475.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

Shares of EXAS have lost 15% year to date. It beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other one, delivering an average surprise of 48.79%. Exact Sciences is expected to report Q2 results on Aug. 6, after market close.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research