Will Gross Bookings Growth Lift UBER's Q2 Earnings Results?

Uber Technologies UBER is scheduled to release its second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 6, before the market opens. The results are expected to be highly influenced by how the company performs concerning a key metric – gross bookings.

Uber’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 212.3%.

Uber Technologies Price and EPS Surprise

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Before we delve into the likely influence of gross bookings on UBER’s upcoming results, here is a snapshot of its first-quarter 2024 earnings report.

Uber’s Q1 Highlights

Uber reported mixed first-quarter 2025 results, wherein earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate but revenues missed the same. Quarterly earnings per share of 83 cents beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 51 cents. In the year-ago quarter, UBER incurred a loss of 32 cents per share.

Total revenues of $11.5 billion marginally missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $11.6 billion. However, the top line jumped 14% year over year on a reported basis and 17% on a constant currency basis.

In the reported quarter, the majority (56.3%) of the company’s revenues came from Mobility. Revenues from this segment jumped 15% year over year on a reported basis and 18% on a constant currency basis to $6.49 billion, owing to an increase in Mobility gross bookings due to an increase in trip volumes.

Revenues from the Delivery segment increased 18% year over year on a reported basis and 22% on a constant currency basis to $3.77 billion, owing to an increase in delivery gross bookings. This was due to an increase in trip volumes and a rise in advertising revenues. Total gross bookings ascended 14% year over year on a reported basis and 18% on a constant currency basis to $42.81 billion. The reported figure lies within the guided range of $42-$43.5 billion.

Forex Movements Likely to Have Hurt Gross Bookings in Q2

Gross bookings are likely to have been hurt in the June quarter by currency headwinds. Uber expects gross bookings in the June quarter in the $45.75-$47.25 billion band, indicating growth of 16-20% on a constant-currency basis from second-quarter 2024 actuals. Our estimate for second-quarter 2025 gross bookings is pegged at $46.23 billion (just below the mid-point of the guided range). 

Management’s guidance includes an estimated 1.5 percentage point impact of currency headwind (including a roughly 3 percentage point currency headwind to Mobility).

We expect gross bookings in Uber’s Mobility segment to be $23.8 billion, representing 16% growth from year-ago actuals. Gross bookings in Uber’s Delivery segment are expected to be $21.1 billion, representing 16.4% growth from year-ago actuals.

Total trips are also likely to have been subdued, attributed to the headwinds in the quarter to be reported. Rising insurance prices have been hurting Uber’s rideshare business. These high costs have also been blamed for the slowdown in rideshare demand.

Overall Earnings & Revenue Estimations of UBER

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is pegged at 62 cents per share. The projection compares favorably with the earnings of 47 cents per share reported by Uber in the second quarter of 2024. The June-quarter consensus mark for earnings per share has remained stable in the past 30 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.46 billion for sales indicates a 16.41% rise on a year-over-year basis.

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for UBER this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

UBER has an Earnings ESP of +0.20% and a Zacks Rank #3.  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Key Sectoral Players to Report Q2 results

Uber’s main competitor, Lyft LYFT, is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 6. The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.

We expect Lyft's performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been boosted by an uptick in total revenues. Its top-line growth is likely to have been driven by an increase in active riders as the ride-share market rebounds from the pandemic lows. High inflation might, however, hurt results in the to-be-reported quarter.

Another key player from the broader Computer and Technology sector, DoorDash DASH, is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 6. DASH has an Earnings ESP of +3.03% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s second-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $3.16 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 20.3%. For earnings, the consensus mark is pegged at 42 cents per share, implying a rise of more than 100% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the past four quarters and missed twice, with the average negative surprise being 48%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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