Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Opendoor Technologies Inc. on Darius Dark Investing’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on OPEN. Opendoor Technologies Inc.'s share was trading at $2.3400 as of July 28^th

Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) became the focus of a frenzied mid-2025 meme stock rally, its shares soaring nearly 200% in a month on massive trading volumes as retail investors, fueled by high short interest and activist Eric Jackson’s audacious “$82 stock” call, drew parallels to Carvana’s legendary turnaround. Yet beyond the speculative mania lies a deeply polarizing investment case. Bears argue Opendoor’s iBuyer model—built on flipping homes at scale using thin-margin, algorithm-driven offers—has been crippled by today’s hostile macro backdrop of 7% mortgage rates, a frozen housing market, rising inventory financing costs, and forecasts of home price declines.

Revenues have collapsed from $15.5 billion in 2022 to $5.2 billion in 2024, with steep losses and heavy leverage compounding concerns, reinforced by insider selling. But this consensus view overlooks a contrarian thesis: Opendoor has emerged from the iBuyer shakeout as the sole scaled player in 50 markets, benefiting from competitive barriers erected by the downturn itself. Operational discipline is evident, with contribution margins turning positive and adjusted EBITDA guided to profitability even in a brutal environment.

Its true moat lies in proprietary data and algorithms, refined through 274,000 transactions and enhanced by new tools like the Key Agent™ app, assets that the market effectively assigns zero value. Jackson’s activist campaign, pushing for leadership change and strategic clarity, could catalyze a rerating, with the meme-driven rally itself enabling capital raises through at-the-market share offerings, fortifying the balance sheet. Opendoor remains a high-risk, asymmetric bet: the downside is significant, but successful execution could yield extraordinary upside as the housing cycle turns.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) by LongYield in May 2025, which highlighted its disciplined pivot to profitability, agent partnerships, and strong liquidity amid a tough housing market. The company’s stock has appreciated about 168% since his thesis played out. Darius Dark shares a similar view but emphasizes the meme-stock rally and activist-led catalysts.

Opendoor Technologies Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 21 hedge fund portfolios held OPEN at the end of the first quarter, which was 20 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of OPEN as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.