Newmont's Q2 Output Falls: Can Tier-1 Mines Deliver a Stronger 2H?

Newmont Corporation NEM reported a decline in gold production for the second quarter of 2025, largely linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. The move, aimed at sharpening focus on Tier-1 operations, weighed on production. NEM reported a roughly 8% year-over-year and 4% sequential decline in gold production for the second quarter, reaching 1.48 million ounces. This marked the second straight quarter of sequential production decline and the lowest output since the third quarter of 2023. 

Newmont anticipates maintaining its expected gold production for 2025 at about 5.9 million ounces. For the third quarter, the company expects attributable production from the total Tier 1 portfolio to be relatively in line with the second quarter, as higher production from non-operated joint ventures, as well as Cerro Negro, Brucejack, and Tanami, is expected to be offset by declines at Ahafo South, Lihir, Penasquito and Cadia.

Newmont’s transition to a high-quality, Tier-1 portfolio is a long-term strategy focused on reliability and efficiency. Whether these Tier-1 mines can ramp up sufficiently to hit full-year production targets remains uncertain, especially with higher sustaining capital requirements and labor cost pressures already affecting performance. Without a meaningful ramp-up in the second half, the production gap could undercut the profitability goals for 2025.

Looking across the competitive landscape, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM logged gold production of 866,029 ounces in the second quarter, down roughly 3% year over year. Agnico Eagle saw lower production from Meadowbank, Fosterville and Canadian Malartic, partially masked by gains at Macassa and LaRonde. Agnico Eagle remains on track to meet its 2025 gold production target of around 3.3-3.5 million ounces.
 
Barrick Mining Corporation B saw a significant decline in gold production in first-quarter 2025 amid operational challenges. Barrick delivered production of 758,000 ounces, reflecting a 19% drop from the year-ago quarter and a 30% fall from the prior quarter. This downturn was primarily due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine amid Barrick’s dispute with the Malian government over dividing the economic benefits, and lower output across Carlin and Cortez. Barrick provided a tepid forecast for 2025, with attributable gold production expected in the range of 3.15-3.5 million ounces, excluding production from Loulo-Gounkoto.

The Zacks Rundown for NEM

Shares of Newmont have shot up 80.7% year to date against the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s rise of 63.7%, largely driven by the gold price rally.

From a valuation standpoint, NEM is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 13.13, a roughly 2% premium to the industry average of 12.87X. It carries a Value Score of B.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 46.6% and 0.6%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.

NEM stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
 
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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