Can AngloGold Ashanti Maintain Its EBITDA Margin Expansion Streak?

AngloGold Ashanti plc AU delivered an impressive 111% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $1.4 billion in the second quarter of 2025. This was boosted by higher production volumes, cost discipline and elevated gold prices. The adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 59% in the quarter from 50% in the year-ago quarter. 

This followed an impressive first quarter, where adjusted EBITDA surged 158% to $1.12 billion. AngloGold Ashanti has generated a total of $2.56 billion in adjusted EBITDA in the first half of 2025. A key driver of this performance is the company’s Full Asset Potential Program, which has been driving cost efficiencies and insulating operations against inflation. The impact of this program was already visible in 2024, when adjusted EBITDA rose 93%, recovering from a 21% decline in 2023. 

AngloGold Ashanti’s gold production was up 22% year over year to 1.52 million ounces in the first half of 2025. This was bolstered by contributions from the recently acquired Sukari Gold Mine in Egypt, along with improved performances at key assets, including Obuasi, Siguiri, Geita and Cerro Vanguardia. For 2025, AngloGold Ashanti projects gold production of 2.9-3.225 million ounces, indicating 9–21% growth over the prior year. 

Higher production, the rally in gold prices this year and its ongoing cost control efforts position the company for further EBITDA gains in the months ahead. 

While AngloGold Ashanti’s EBITDA performance was driven by both volume and margin expansion, peers Newmont Corporation NEM and Agnico Eagle Mines AEM saw improved EBITDA in their recently reported results, mainly due to favorable gold prices.

Newmont reported a 52% year over year surge in adjusted EBITDA to around $3 billion in the second quarter of 2025 with adjusted EBITDA margin compared with 45% in the year-ago quarter. Newmont attributed the increase to higher net income driven by higher prices, which offset the impact of lower production. 

Agnico Eagle Mines reported an adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion in the second quarter of 2025, which marked a 63% year-over-year jump. The rise in adjusted EBITDA reflected increased mine operating margins from higher realized gold prices that helped partially offset lower gold sales, increased production costs and higher general and administrative expenses. Agnico Eagle Mine’s adjusted EBITDA margin stood at 68% in the second quarter compared with 57% in the year-ago quarter.

AU’s Price Performance, Valuations & Estimates

AngloGold Ashanti’s stock has skyrocketed 144.6% year to date, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 63.7% growth. During this time, the Basic Materials sector has risen 10.3%  and the S&P 500 has rallied 7.4%.

AU is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 11.41X, a discount to the industry average of 12.87X. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AngloGold Ashanti’s 2025 sales is $8.85 billion, indicating 52.8% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for the year’s earnings is $4.99 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 125.8%. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 sales implies 2.3% year-over-year growth. The same for earnings, however, indicates a decline of 1.3%.

EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been trending south over the past 60 days, as seen in the chart below.

AU currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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