Where Will Lucid Stock Be in 3 Years?

Key Points

• Lucid's stock crumbled after it missed its own pre-merger estimates set back in 2021.

• The loss of its CEO and Chief Technology Officer, Peter Rawlinson, raises more red flags.

• It could struggle to ramp up its production over the next few years.

• 10 stocks we like better than Lucid Group ›

Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID), a producer of luxury electric vehicles (EVs), went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in July 2021. It initially attracted a lot of attention because it was led by Peter Rawlinson, Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) former chief vehicle engineer who developed the Model S.

Lucid started delivering its Air sedan that October. A month later, its stock closed at its post-merger high of $57.75. At the time, the bulls believed it could evolve into the "next Tesla" and fulfill its goal of delivering 20,000 vehicles in 2022, 49,000 vehicles in 2023, and 90,000 vehicles in 2024.

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Image source: Lucid.

But in reality, Lucid's vehicle deliveries only reached 4,369 in 2022, 6,001 in 2023, and 10,241 in 2024. It struggled to ramp up its production as it grappled with supply chain constraints, tough competition, and fierce macro headwinds for the EV market. To make matters worse, it postponed the first deliveries of its second vehicle, the Gravity SUV, from 2024 to 2025. Rawlinson stepped down this February, and Lucid still hasn't appointed a permanent CEO.

That's why Lucid's stock now trades at about $2. But could it bounce back again over the next three years? Let's review its best-case and worst-case scenarios to find out.

The best-case scenario for Lucid

For 2025, Lucid expects to produce 18,000 to 20,000 vehicles as it ramps up its deliveries of the Gravity SUV. In 2026, it plans to launch its third vehicle, a more affordable SUV (which could potentially be called "Earth") to compete more effectively against Tesla and other EV makers.

Moreover, Lucid partnered with Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) and Nuro to deploy at least 20,000 autonomous Gravity SUVs across America. That rollout, which will kick off next year, could boost Lucid's brand recognition and give it a foothold in the nascent robotaxi market.

To support that growth, it will expand its AMP-1 plant in Arizona and AMP-2 plant in Saudi Arabia. That expansion will be costly, but it's still firmly backed by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF), which owns nearly two-thirds of its outstanding shares. It ended its latest quarter with $4.86 billion in total liquidity, which it claims will give it "ample flexibility to fund operations, scale Lucid Gravity production, and invest in future platforms."

Assuming Lucid achieves those goals, analysts expect its revenue to surge 62% to $1.3 billion in 2025, 91% to $2.5 billion in 2026, and 86% to $4.7 billion in 2027. They also expect it to slightly narrow its annual net loss from $2.8 billion in 2025 to $2 billion in 2027. We should take those estimates with a grain of salt, but Lucid's insiders bought 136 times as many shares as they sold over the past 12 months. That warmer insider sentiment suggests a turnaround might be right around the corner.

The worst-case scenario for Lucid

Yet Lucid has repeatedly missed its own estimates. A recent report claimed that it only sold nine Gravity SUVs (based on its vehicle registrations) in the first half of 2025. It countered that report by claiming its Gravity deliveries were "well into the three-digit range," but that's still not too impressive compared to its full-year production targets.

In the first half of 2025, Lucid only produced 6,075 vehicles. That means it needs to produce nearly 12,000 vehicles in the second half of 2025 to reach the low end of its own target. That acceleration needs to be driven by the Gravity SUV. But if that demand isn't there, Lucid will quickly burn through its remaining liquidity. It would then struggle to secure additional funding from Saudi Arabia's PIF if its coffers run dry.

Lucid has already increased its number of outstanding shares by 90% since its SPAC merger, and that dilution will worsen if it needs to raise more cash. It could struggle to secure fresh funding and convince its investors that it can keep expanding without Rawlinson at the helm.

With a market cap of $6.5 billion, Lucid might not seem that pricey at 5 times this year's sales. But that valuation is still pegged to Wall Street's lofty estimates -- which the company could easily miss if it fails to ramp up its Gravity deliveries this year.

Where will Lucid's stock be in three years?

Assuming Lucid matches analysts' expectations through 2027, grows its revenue another 50% in 2028, and trades at a more generous 10 times forward sales, its market cap could surge 11-fold to $70.5 billion over the next three years. But given its track record of overpromising and underdelivering, I wouldn't expect it to deliver such massive multibagger gains. Instead, I expect Lucid to struggle over the next three years as it tries to keep pace with Tesla and other EV leaders without a visionary leader. So for now, I believe its volatile stock will either remain flat or sink unless a few more green shoots appear.

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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.