Durable Goods Orders Decreased Less Than Expected

Pre-market activity is somewhat better than earlier in the trading session this morning, following a less-bad Durable Goods report for July. We also appear to be bouncing around a bit more in recent trading days after a steadier level following August 2nd lows. The Dow and the Nasdaq are currently -30 points, with the S&P 500 -5 presently. The small-cap Russell 2000 once again remains higher than the field, +3 points.

Durable Goods Orders Improve in July

Headline Durable Goods Orders last month reached another negative number, -2.8%, but an improvement from both the -4.0% consensus estimate and the -9.4% posted the prior month. That -9.4%, by the way, was the lowest month of durable goods orders since April 2020, ground-zero of the Covid pandemic. It’s the third negative month in the past four, going back to April’s new tariff policy.

Strip out Transportation orders, and we see this number swing back to positive: +1.1%, the highest since September of last year. Non-Defense, ex-aircraft also came in at +1.1%, the strongest month since May. Shipments, on the other hand, performed the strongest of 2025 so far: +0.7%. Not too shabby for Durable Goods numbers in the midst of tariff conflicts.

Case-Shiller Home Prices Lowest in Almost 2 Years

Considered the most accurate of all home price data, Case-Shiller Home Prices for the month of June has come in 20 basis points (bps) below expectations to +2.1%, and down from +2.8% reported in May. This is the lowest monthly Case-Shiller home price level since July of 2023. Housing Wealth now registers up +1.9% year over year, no longer keeping up with the Inflation Rate, which was +2.7% in June.

Consistent with recent months in this sequence are the monthly winners in losers by city: New York City has gained +7.0% in housing value over the past year, followed by Chicago +6.1% and Cleveland +4.5%. Those taking up the rear on the 20-city index are Tampa at -2.4%, San Francisco at -2.0% and Dallas -1.0%.

New Weight Loss Pill from Lilly Shows Promise

Eli Lilly (LLY) is reporting results from its phase-3 testing of a weight loss pill this morning. An average of -10.5% reduction in body weight was recorded, with only mild symptoms for most patients. The dropout rate was +10.6% at the highest dosage level. The drug appears on pace to pass the regulatory board, and Lilly shares are up +2.5% on this news. The stock is still down by high-single-digits, year to date.

Earnings Reports Ahead of the Bell: BMO, BNS

Two Canadian banks have reported earnings ahead of today’s open, both with Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) ratings going into the prints. The Bank of Montreal (BMO) beat bottom-line expectations by +9.9% — earnings of $2.33 per share versus the Zacks consensus $2.12 — while The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) reported a +7% earnings beat: $1.37 per share versus $1.28 expected. Shares of BMO are up +1% on the news, BNS +2%.

What to Expect from the Stock Market Today

U.S. Consumer Confidence from The Conference Board is out after the open this morning, reporting for the month of August. Expectations are that headline will drop a bit from the bounce-back in July — to 96.5 from 97.2 — which is still above the lows we saw this spring upon the tariff “Liberation Day” and what had transpired since. We are expected to remain in the lower half of Consumer Confidence outlook post-pandemic, however.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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