Increasing uncertainty and potential systemic vulnerabilities highlight the need to adopt a more defensive and conservative approach. That said, even investors with a more aggressive strategy may benefit from increasing exposure to relatively defensive sectors.
Rising U.S. debt levels, continued geopolitical instability, and investors looking to reduce reliance on the “Magnificent 7” stocks due to concerns over an AI bubble are a few of the uncertainties in the market. Such conditions could prompt investors to overreact to even mildly negative news, triggering panic selling.
Here are a few more factors that weigh on consumer confidence.
Inflation Keeping Investors on Edge
In mid-August, Reuters reported that inflation expectations are rising, with consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations jumping to 4.9% in August from 4.5% in the previous month. The long-term expectations increased to 3.9% from 3.4%.
Last Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted increased inflation concerns at the Jackson Hole Symposium, resulting in investors turning more cautious. According to Reuters, investors became anxious about the possible risks of stagflation and an overconfident market.
The Conference Board’s consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations, increased to 6.2% in August from 5.7% in July. Growing concerns about rising inflation could make investors risk-adverse and lead them to cut back on discretionary spending.
Slipping Consumer Confidence
According to the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers, released mid-August, the Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 58.6 in August from July’s 61.7, as quoted on Reuters.
Per the Conference Board, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 97.4 in August, from July’s 98.7, marking a decline of 1.3 points. The Present Situation Index also witnessed a similar trend, falling 1.6 points to 131.2.
The Conference Board’s Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook on income, business and conditions of the labor market, dropped to 74.8, remaining below 80, a common warning sign of recession.
According to the Conference Board, in August, consumers grew more concerned about a U.S. recession over the next 12 months. According to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica of the Conference Board, the economy is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025 as the effects of tariffs become more pronounced. Real GDP is projected to witness growth of 1.6% year over year this year, before moderating to 1.3% next year.
Why Consumer Staple Funds?
Preserving capital and cushioning volatility is key for investors looking to navigate a potential volatile period ahead. In the current economic landscape, increasing exposure to consumer staple funds is an attractive option.
Consumer staple funds may not outperform consumer discretionary funds or growth-oriented funds in a bullish or optimistic market. However, investing in the sector will provide dual benefits of protecting portfolios during market downturns and offering gains when the market trends upward.
Increasing exposure to consumer staples funds can bring balance and stability to investors’ portfolios. Such funds also safeguard investors from potential market downturns.
The potential slowdown in the economy could benefit consumer staples stocks, as these companies manufacture everyday necessities such as food, beverages and household items. The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index has gained 3.28% year to date and 0.81% month to date.
ETFs to Consider
Investors can consider Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund XLP, Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF VDC, iShares U.S. Consumer Staples ETF IYK, Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF FSTA and Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Staples ETF RSPS.
With a one-month average trading volume of 16.08 million shares, XLP is the most liquid option, ideal for active trading strategies. However, implementing an active strategy in the current landscape may not be the most effective approach.
XLP has also gathered an asset base of $15.79 billion, the largest among the other options. Performance-wise, VDC has outpaced other funds, declining 1.39% over the past month but gaining 6.66% over the past year.
Regarding annual fees, FSTA and XLP are the cheapest options, charging 0.08%, making them more suitable for long-term investing.
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Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP): ETF Research Reports Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC): ETF Research Reports iShares U.S. Consumer Staples ETF (IYK): ETF Research Reports Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA): ETF Research Reports Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Staples ETF (RSPS): ETF Research ReportsThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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