Gold mining exchange-traded funds (ETFs) — Global X Gold Explorers ETF GOEX, Themes Gold Miners ETF AUMI, Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF SGDJ and Vaneck Junior Gold Miners ETF GDXJ — hit a 52-week high on Sept. 2, 2025. The ETF GOEX surged 86.4%, AUMI skyrocketed 92%, SGDJ advanced 71.3% while GDXJ added 85% as of the same day.
And why not? After all, gold bullion ETF SPDR Gold Trust GLD has locked in more than 32% gains so far this year (as of Sept. 2, 2025). As mining stocks often act as leveraged plays of the underlying metal, mining stocks and ETFs outperform the metal itself.
Let’s find out the reason behind the rally.
Higher Safe-Haven Demand
With continued trade tensions even after some deal-making, the safe-haven metal gold remained in a sweet spot this year. Most recently, U.S.-India trade tensions spiked, as India seems to be teaming up with Russia and China.
Since three of the BRIC nations have been shoring up their alliance, geopolitical tensions appear to be on the rise. This could be a reason for gold’s renewed strength in the past month. GLD is up 4.7% over the past month versus 1.4% gains in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY.
Even though gold briefly cooled in mid-May amid momentary cooling in trade tensions, these risks continued to linger. Investors are finding it safer to fall back on gold and consider it a crucial part of their portfolio.
Strong Central Bank’s Gold Buying
According to the World Gold Council, central banks have purchased more than 1000 tons of gold annually over the past three years. A record 43% of central bankers also indicated that their own gold reserves would increase over the next 12 months, as quoted on the above-mentioned World Gold Council article. A Financial Express article explained that global central banks are now holding more gold than U.S. Treasuries.
A Weaker Dollar in the Cards?
The Fed will likely cut interest rates in September after Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a reduction in his highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech. There are 91.6% chances of a 25-bp rate cut in September, per the CME FedWatch Tool. A softer labor market has probably led the Fed to walk this path.
If the Fed starts easing policy (albeit at a moderate pace), which could be the case ahead, given President Trump’s inclination for a lower rate and still-contained inflation rate amid tariffs, the U.S. dollar may lose strength.
Since gold is priced in the greenback, any slump in the U.S. dollar tends to buoy gold prices. Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund UUP is off 7.2% this year (as of Sept. 2, 2025) and has lost 0.04% over the past month.
Gold Mining: An Undervalued Industry?
Zacks Mining – Gold Industry trades with a forward P/E of 13.08X versus the S&P 500’s P/E of 19.77X. Projected EPS growth of the industry is 56.58% versus 7% expected for the S&P 500. Given these data points, we expect more rally for the gold mining stocks if gold’s prices stay steady.
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SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): ETF Research Reports Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (UUP): ETF Research Reports United States Oil ETF (USO): ETF Research Reports VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ): ETF Research Reports Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GOEX): ETF Research Reports Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ): ETF Research Reports Themes Gold Miners ETF (AUMI): ETF Research ReportsThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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