Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Harley-Davidson, Inc. on RM Capital Partnership’s Substackby RM Capital Partnership. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on HOG. Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s share was trading at $29.12 as of August 29^th. HOG’s trailing and forward P/E were 14.20 and 10.47 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

The global motorcycle market splits into utility-driven small-engine bikes in developing markets and lifestyle-driven heavyweight motorcycles in developed economies, where sales are discretionary and sensitive to macro conditions. Within the heavyweight segment, Harley-Davidson dominates with leading positions in Touring and Cruiser categories, commanding ~74% and ~77% U.S. market share, respectively, and leveraging its extensive dealer network and the Harley Owners Group (H.O.G.) community of over 1 million members.

Its moat rests on brand equity, resale value, and community stickiness, though challenges include an aging core demographic, EV disruption, and competitive share gains by Indian, BMW, and Ducati. Harley operates through three segments: HDMC, its core motorcycle manufacturing arm; HDFS, which generates ~20% of revenues with resilient margins through financing operations; and LiveWire, its separate but unprofitable electric subsidiary in which it retains a 90% stake. Management has taken steps to strengthen balance sheet and returns, including a capital-light receivables deal with KKR and PIMCO generating ~$1.25B for debt reduction and buybacks.

At ~5.9× EV/FCF, the market values Harley as if it faces structural decline, yet the company generates ~$850M FCF annually and returns ~20% of EV to stakeholders through debt paydown, dividends, and repurchases. Catalysts include the 2026 launch of a cheaper bike to attract younger riders, consistent shareholder returns, and macro tailwinds from lower rates. With brand power, high-margin accessories, and financing stability, Harley remains positioned to defend share and sustain profitability. At current levels, the stock offers a compelling margin of safety and potential for mid-teens to 20%+ annualized returns.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) by Business Model Mastery in May 2025, highlighting its lifestyle brand, high-margin parts and accessories, captive financing, and dominant U.S. market share. The stock has appreciated ~18% since, as the thesis played out. RM Capital Partnership shares a similar view but emphasizes LiveWire, capital-light financing, and shareholder returns.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 22 hedge fund portfolios held HOG at the end of the first quarter which was 23 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of HOG as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.