Will Opendoor Stock Get Another Win From the Fed on Wednesday? It's Not That Simple

Key Points

• Opendoor stock has skyrocketed over the last three months.

• Hopes for interest rate cuts have contributed to the surge.

• Home prices are already at an all-time high, which could limit price increases.

• 10 stocks we like better than Opendoor Technologies ›

Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ: OPEN) has skyrocketed over the last three months as what started out as a meme-stock rally based on the argument that it could be the next Carvana could now be turning into a legitimate turnaround.

Opendoor just brought in a new CEO, tapping Shopify COO Kaz Nejatian for the top spot, and two of its co-founders have returned to the board with one of them, Keith Rabois, becoming the new chair.

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But there's more than just meme investors and new leadership fueling the Opendoor run. Investors are also banking on help from Fed interest rate cuts. The stock soared on Aug. 22 when Fed chair Jerome Powell hinted that the time had arrived for rate cuts at his Jackson Hole address, and the central bank is widely expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, which would be its first cut this year. Mortgage rates are already falling in anticipation of a lower benchmark borrowing rate, and are now around 1-year lows.

As a company whose business is built on flipping homes, essentially reselling them for more than they purchased them for and collecting service fees in the process, lower mortgage rates would seem to be a positive for the company.

However, it might not be the solution to profitability that investors have been waiting for. Let's take a closer look to see why.

Image source: Getty Images.

The good news

Lower mortgage rates are likely to give the housing market a much-needed jolt in activity. Rates are still hovering above 6%, more than double what they were during much of the pandemic.

The spike in mortgage rates has created a "lock-in effect," meaning Americans who bought or refinanced homes during the pandemic are reluctant to give up those mortgages when rates are so much higher, even if they'd like to move.

As a result, existing home sales have been in the dumps for years now. As you can see from the chart below, existing home sales have been trending at around 4 million annually for the last three years, down about 30% from pre-pandemic levels.

US Existing Home Sales data by YCharts

If mortgage rates fall substantially, more prospective homebuyers and sellers should enter the market, benefiting Opendoor, and housing inventory is likely to climb. More inventory gives the company more opportunities to buy homes and more potential transactions to drive its business. A more active housing market could also decrease the amount of time that Opendoor keeps homes on its books, which would save the company money.

Additionally, Opendoor benefits from lower interest rates because it uses the debt market to fund its home purchases. It finished the second quarter with $1.2 billion in asset-backed debt and $1.5 billion in real estate inventory.

Why it might not matter

Arguably, the most important housing market factor affecting Opendoor isn't the number of existing home transactions, but home prices, as the company clearly benefits from prices rising.

However, while housing market activity has been stalled, prices have remained at all-time highs. After a brief pullback in 2022, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index is now at 331.5 as of June, which is up about 50% from when the pandemic started. The median sales price for a home in July 2025 was $422,400, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Home prices could keep moving higher, but there may not be much room to go up as there's a significant housing shortage in the U.S., estimated to be in the millions, and several metrics point to a housing affordability crisis. According to some measurements, home prices have never been higher compared to income.

Of course, lower mortgage rates will lower monthly payments, encouraging buyers to come into the market, but an unwinding of the "lock-in effect" could also raise supply, pressuring prices.

Additionally, the weakening labor market could tamp down demand for home purchases.

What it means for Opendoor

Whatever happens in the housing market, it will take time to play out, especially as Jerome Powell has signaled a cautious approach, wary that inflation is still above the Fed's target of 2%.

Still, any sign of an improving macro climate is likely to be a boon to Opendoor stock. Whether the business can take advantage of a more active housing market and turn a profit remains to be seen. As investors adjust their expectations for Opendoor, they should keep in mind that housing prices already look stretched, meaning the upside for Opendoor could be limited.

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Jeremy Bowman has positions in Carvana and Shopify. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Shopify. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.