Vertex Plunges Around 24% in Six Months: How to Play the Stock

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX stock has declined 23.6% in the past six months, mainly due to recent pipeline setbacks.

In August 2025, Vertex’s phase II study on the oral formulation of next-gen Nav1.8 inhibitor, VX-993, for treating acute pain after bunionectomy surgery did not show a statistically significant improvement on the primary endpoint. Following the disappointing results, the company decided not to advance VX-993 into pivotal development as a monotherapy for acute pain, as it felt that it would not be superior to its other NaV1.8 inhibitors.

In March 2025, Vertex discontinued the development of VX-264 (cells device program), as a phase I/II study on the candidate in type 1 diabetes failed to meet its efficacy endpoint.

In December 2024, Vertex announced unimpressive data from a phase II study on suzetrigine for treating people with painful lumbosacral radiculopathy (“LSR”), a form of peripheral neuropathic pain. The data showed largely undifferentiated pain reduction from placebo. In August 2025, the company said it would not begin a phase III study on suzetrigine for the LSR indication, and it wouldn’t be moving forward with a broad peripheral neuropathic pain label for suzetrigine. Suzetrigine was approved as Journavx in the United States in January for the treatment of moderate-to-severe acute pain.

Vertex’s recent price decline has left investors wondering if they should sell the stock now or hold a little longer. Let’s understand the company’s strengths and weaknesses to better analyze how to play VRTX stock amid this scenario.

Consistent Rise in VRTX’s CF Product Sales

Vertex holds a dominant position in the cystic franchise (CF) market. Its CF sales continue to grow, driven by demand growth of Trikafta/Kaftrio in younger age groups. While in the near term, Trikafta’s expansion to younger age groups should continue to drive CF sales growth, the launch of Alyftrek, a next-in-class triple combination regimen, should drive growth in the medium term.

However, there are some concerns regarding Vertex’s CF sales that are slightly slowing down.

Vertex is also evaluating its medicines in younger patient populations and aims to have small-molecule treatments for most people with CF. Additionally, Vertex is developing an mRNA therapeutic, VX-522, in partnership with Moderna MRNA for approximately 5,000 people with CF who do not make the CFTR protein and who cannot benefit from its CFTR modulators. A single ascending dose portion of a phase I/II clinical study on VX-522 is complete, while a multiple ascending dose portion of the study is on a temporary pause, which is expected to resume in the near term.

Vertex’s New Products Sales Showing Improvement

Vertex has gained approval for three new products in the past 2-3 years, including its novel non-opioid pain medicine, Journavx (suzetrigine), its fifth CF medicine, Alyftrek, and its one-shot gene therapy, Casgevy, for two blood disorders, sickle cell disease (“SCD”) and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia (“TDT”). Vertex has developed Casgevy in partnership with CRISPR Therapeutics CRSP

Alyftrek (vanza triple), Vertex’s new once-a-day oral triple combination CF medicine, has the potential to provide better patient benefit than Trikafta and become a new standard-of-care treatment in CF. It can possibly treat CF patients who have discontinued Trikafta or other Vertex CF medicines. It can improve dosing (once daily), lower the royalty burden and extend patent protection from 2037 for Trikafta into 2039 for Alyftrek. The launch uptake of Alyftrek was strong, with the drug recording sales of $210 million in the first half of 2025.

Journavx’s launch metrics and early reimbursement progress look favorable. Journavx generated sales of $13.3 million in the first half of 2025. Vertex expects higher sales from Journavx in the second half due to gains in sustainable payer coverage. However, there may be revenue variability from quarter to quarter. Vertex is conducting a pivotal phase III program of suzetrigine in diabetic peripheral neuropathy, a form of peripheral neuropathic pain caused by damage to nerves.

CRISPR Therapeutics-partnered Casgevy is the first-ever CRISPR/Cas9-based therapy to be approved anywhere in the world. Vertex believes Casgevy has the potential to be a one-time functional cure for SCD and TDT patients, with an estimated patient population of approximately 60,000 across the countries where Casgevy is approved. Vertex is securing reimbursement and access to Casgevy globally. However, Casgevy’s launch has been slightly slow. Casgevy generated sales of $44.6 million in the first half of 2025

Vertex/CRISPR Therapeutics expect Casgevy revenues to ramp up as the year progresses, as more patients are treated in geographies where the drug has secured regulatory approval and reimbursement.

Vertex’s Robust Mid-Stage Pipeline

While Vertex’s main focus is on the development and strengthening of its CF franchise, the company also has a rapidly advancing mid- to late-stage pipeline in other disease areas beyond CF, like acute and neuropathic pain, APOL1-mediated kidney disease, IgA nephropathy (IgAN) and primary membranous nephropathy (pMN). Many of these candidates represent multibillion-dollar opportunities. Four of these programs are in pivotal development. Three of these phase III programs are on track to complete enrollment this year, setting the stage for several potential regulatory filings in 2026 and early 2027 and potential new drug approvals in a couple of years.

Last year’s Alpine acquisition added povetacicept to Vertex’s pipeline, which the latter believes has a “pipeline in a product” potential. Povetacicept is designed to target two proteins, namely BAFF and APRIL, which are jointly responsible for the cause of multiple serious autoimmune diseases. A phase III study on povetacicept for the treatment of IgANis ongoing with a potential filing in the first half of 2026. Vertex plans to initiate a pivotal phase II/III study of povetacicept in pMN by the end of 2025. Data from these studies is expected later in 2025.

However, the company faced a couple of setbacks related to its pipeline recently, which we have already discussed at the beginning of the article.

VRTX’s Stock Price, Valuation and Estimates

Vertex stock has declined 2.8% year to date compared with the industry’s 0.7% decline. 

VRTX Stock Underperforms Industry

The stock is trading at a premium to the industry, as seen in the chart below.

VRTX Stock Valuation

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has risen from $17.78 to $17.98 per share over the past 60 days, while that for 2026 has risen from $19.81 to $19.84.

VRTX Estimate Movement

Stay Invested in VRTX Stock

Vertex’s recent pipeline setbacks, mainly in the pain program, have created a bearish sentiment around the stock. The company’s dependence on the CF franchise for its revenues is also a concern. While the company has other pipeline candidates targeting various diseases and some new non-CF drugs, such as Casgevy and Journavx, it will take a couple of years to bring in significant non-CF sales. Vertex’s non-CF programs also carry significant risk.

However, we believe Vertex is a good stock to have in one’s portfolio, considering its strong overall financial performance and robust pipeline progress. Vertex faces minimal competition in the CF franchise. CF sales are expected to remain strong despite a slight slowdown in the growth rate. Casgevy and Journavx provide the necessary diversification from the CF franchise. The company’s dependence on the CF franchise for growth was a concern for several analysts, but it is gradually resolving. In 2025, Vertex expects sales to grow around 8%, driven by continued CF franchise growth and contributions from its newly launched products.

Though VRTX stock currently looks expensive, we believe that it has growth potential. Those who already own the stock may retain it for some time to see if its CF sales continue to rise and if Casgevy, Journavx and Alyftrek’s sales improve in the second half. Consistently rising estimates also reflect analysts’ optimistic outlook for future growth in profits. Vertex presently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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