MTN Gears Up for Q4 Earnings: What's in the Offing for the Stock?

Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Sept. 29, after the closing bell.

In the last quarter, its adjusted earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.4%. Notably, MTN delivered better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 2.7%.

Trend in Estimate Revision of MTN

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter loss per share has narrowed to $4.78 from $4.80 over the past 30 days. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported adjusted loss per share of $4.67.

For net revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $270 million, indicating a 1.7% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure of $265.4 million.

Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.

Factors Likely to Shape Vail Resorts’ Q4 Results

Vail Resorts’ top-line performance in fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 is likely to have been supported by continued strength in its Season Pass program, which remains the cornerstone of the growth strategy. Despite fluctuations in visitation across certain markets, the company is likely to have benefited from solid unit growth in Epic Day Pass products, driven by renewing pass holders and broader traction among lower-frequency skiers through the launch of the Epic Australia four-day pass.

In addition, Vail Resorts’ strategic investments and guest-focused initiatives are likely to have boosted traffic and spending. Owing to these tailwinds, our model predicts Mountain and Lodging net revenues for the to-be-reported quarter to grow year over year by 4.2% to $183.3 million and decline 1.7% to $87.9 million, respectively.

However, a rise in operating expenses is likely to have dented margins in the to-be-reported quarter. Our model predicts total segment operating expense to increase 3.4% year over year to $394 million.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for MTN

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vail Resorts this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Vail Resorts has an Earnings ESP of +4.69% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some stocks that investors may consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the quarter to be reported.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) has an Earnings ESP of +2.09% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Shares of Norwegian Cruise have surged 26.7% in the past year. NCLH’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, the average surprise being 29.1%.

Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) has an Earnings ESP of +3.34% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Shares of Carnival have jumped 70.2% in the past year. CCL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 169.9%.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) has an Earnings ESP of +0.74% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Shares of Royal Caribbean have gained 86.3% in the past year. RCL’s earnings surpassed the consensus mark in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 6.4%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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