Rivian Is Emerging as a Supplemental Tesla Play

When it comes to investing, there’s no shortage of adages. Some are practical: You could easily compile a coffee table book based on Buffettisms alone. On the other hand, others should be taken with a grain of salt. 

For example, after GameStop (NYSE: GME) and AMC Entertainment (NYSE: AMC) posted otherworldly gains in 2021, many “buy the dip” adherents invested every cent they had into the meme stocks’ corrections. Bagholders in those camps are now down 67% and 99%, respectively, from GME’s and AMC’s all-time high (ATH). 

But when it comes to correlated assets, a modern application of an old adage should be garnering some attention. “Silver follows gold” isn’t always true. But it’s been true often enough that the gold-to-silver ratio has become the oldest continuously tracked exchange rate in history. 

It’s also true in 2025. Both precious metals are having a banner year. Gold has set numerous record highs while compiling a year-to-date (YTD) gain of nearly 41%, while silver has marginally trailed with a YTD gain of nearly 38%.  

In a more contemporary application, crypto traders can apply that same concept as Ethereum often follows Bitcoin. This year, the latter has posted a YTD gain of nearly 22%, but the former has outperformed with a YTD gain of more than 25%.  

An argument can be made that another correlation is materializing in the equities market. And although the data has less of a track record to lean upon, there are plenty of reasons to believe that the price movements of two electric vehicle (EV) stocks are becoming intertwined, thereby presenting opportunities for investors in the know.   

Does Rivian Follow Tesla? 

While lacking the historical precedent of “silver follows gold,” Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) has begun to show signs that it may be correlated with the world’s now-second-largest EV maker, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).  

There are, obviously, stark contrasts between the two. As a member of the Magnificent Seven, Tesla has amassed a market cap of $1.47 trillion. For context, only 15 countries have GDPs that exceed that figure. Meanwhile, Rivian’s market cap is a considerably lower but still respectable $19.27 billion. 

Additionally, Tesla has become a political stock, subject to volatile price swings due to its influential CEO Elon Musk’s on-again, off-again relationship with the president that began when Trump was on the campaign trail in 2024. 

Still, as big-name U.S.-based EV companies, the two have plenty in common. Both are:

• Developing more affordable models to incentivize buyers. 
• Embracing the direct-to-consumer model, bypassing traditional dealerships.
• Recognizing the importance of software and performance, they have used that in their approaches to differentiating themselves from legacy automakers, turning to EV production. 

Returning to correlation, those similarities may have begun contributing to a noticeable relationship in the two stocks’ movements. RIVN and TSLA saw sizable corrections this year from peak to trough. Rivian lost 31%, while Tesla lost 48%.

And although their YTD lows were nearly a month apart, they’ve both recovered in a similar fashion, with RIVN up almost 50% and TSLA up 99% from their respective bottoms. 

This correlation is even more evident when looking at a one-year chart of both stocks’ performances. Last fall, shares of Tesla (blue line below) began to run up in October, with Rivian (orange line) following suit in November, as illustrated by Arrow 1 and Arrow 2 below. That led to Tesla setting its then-ATH on Dec. 17, 2024, and Rivian setting its then-one-year high on Jan. 3, 2025, as illustrated by Arrow 3 and Arrow 4 below:

The pullback both stocks experienced early in Q1 2025 is just as evident. And their recoveries have closely mirrored one another. However, Tesla’s rally of late has been more pronounced, with the stock recently setting a new YTD high (Arrow 5 above), which puts the stock less than 8% off its ATH.

That could suggest—from a technical perspective—that Rivian could see larger gains ahead as it’s currently less than 7% off its YTD high. 

Of course, technical analysis lacks predictive power. But for investors with discerning eyes, this emerging correlation could provide clues about Rivian’s potential path forward, whether that means up or down. 

Here’s What Wall Street Thinks 

Whether they know it or not, Wall Street analysts seem to be attuned to this correlation. Based on 24 analysts’ forecasts, Rivian has an average 12-month price target that is 13.15% lower than where shares are trading today.

Meanwhile, Tesla has an average 12-month price target that is 26.21% lower than where shares are trading today.

Both stocks receive a consensus Hold rating, and a pullback for Tesla following this recent run-up would be logical. But as the chart above demonstrates, Tesla has shown that it begins pulling back before Rivian, meaning that if the Musk-led company sees its shares reverse in the near future, there could still be upside potential for Rivian before it too retraces.

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