Fed Pivots: What it Means for MS' Capital Markets Business

The Federal Reserve implemented a 25-basis-point interest rate cut earlier this month, after a nine-month pause. It also signaled two more cuts by the end of this year. Against such a backdrop, let’s try to decipher how Morgan Stanley’s MS capital markets business will perform. 

Being one of the most well-known names in the investment banking sector, MS generates around 45% of its revenues from the capital markets. The company’s first-half 2025 results reinforce operating leverage in the improving capital markets, with management indicating a sizable backlog.

Investment Banking (IB) & Advisory Fees: Lower borrowing costs will further support the revival of corporate financing activity, encouraging debt issuance, mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and equity offerings. After a muted deal environment in the last two years, rate cuts are expected to spark a solid rebound in capital markets, boosting Morgan Stanley’s advisory and underwriting fees. The healthy IB pipeline, an active M&A market and the company’s leadership position in the IB business ensure stronger growth as the macro situation changes.

Likewise, Morgan Stanley’s peers, Goldman Sachs GS and JPMorgan JPM, are expected to witness improvement in their respective IB and advisory fees. Both faced similar headwinds in 2022 and 2023, and their IB and advisory business performance weakened. 

Trading Income (FICC & Equities): Rate transitions often fuel volatility in fixed income, currencies and commodities. Thus, Morgan Stanley stands to benefit from higher client hedging and speculative activity. Additionally, equities trading is expected to gain from increased volumes as investors reposition portfolios for a lower-rate environment. While normalization in trading activity is unavoidable over time, the company’s broad product coverage across fixed income, currencies, commodities and equities positions it to capture upside during volatility spikes.

Similarly, Goldman and JPMorgan are expected to record higher trading revenues in the upcoming quarters as uncertainty over trade policies and lingering geopolitical headwinds continue to result in increased client activity. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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