Wednesday, October 1, 2025
Market indexes were ultimately unbothered by this latest federal government shutdown today, to say nothing of the negative private-sector payroll report this morning from ADP ADP. The AI tech trade is proving too powerful for naysayers — yesterday NVIDIA NVDA became the first company to amass a $4.5 trillion market cap, and the stock rose again today. Tesla TSLA deliveries are expected to be the best of the year, with the expiration of the EV tax credit due.
As good as any stock you can name, gold is also hitting record highs today: $3895 per troy ounce amounts to a +45% gain year to date. This can be seen as a hedge against things like the government shutdown, should it cause unforeseen problems. Gold prices had been as high as $3915 per troy ounce during the course of the trading day.
The Dow gained +43 points today, a mere +0.09%, and the S&P 500 crossed 6700 for the first time ever as of a session close, +22 points or +0.34%. The Nasdaq had the best day of the top indexes, +95 points or +0.42% today and setting a new high of 22,755 as of the closing bell. The small-cap Russell 2000 is still off its September 18th all-time highs, but gained +5 points, +0.24%.
Manufacturing Data Basically In-Line
Aside from the -32K private-sector jobs created last month as per ADP, both
ISM Manufacturing and final
S&P Manufacturing PMI numbers for September came in pretty much as expected: ISM came in 10 basis points (bps) above projections to +49.1%, up 40 bps from the August headline. S&P was steady at +52.0, the same as the prior month and as analysts expected.
Construction spending data for August was delayed today, due to the federal shutdown. Analysts have forecast a drop to -0.2% for the month, down from -0.1% the previous month.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Thursday
Succinctly put: not much. We won’t be seeing any Weekly Jobless Claims numbers tomorrow morning, as they are supplied by the U.S. Department of Labor, which is closed currently — and for who knows how long. Factory Orders for August are put together by the U.S. Census Bureau, so don’t expect them either.
How long can the stock market float above the rigors of the economy, especially considering we have clear signs of an unraveling labor force? For now, the momentum from the AI trade — among other things:
Pfizer PFE shares were up following a sweetheart deal made with the President of the United States — is proving to be the supreme market catalyst.
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Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP): Free Stock Analysis Report Pfizer Inc. (PFE): Free Stock Analysis Report NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Free Stock Analysis Report Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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