Ford Q3 Earnings Loom: How Should You Play F Stock Ahead of Results?

Ford F is slated to release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 23, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s EPS and automotive revenues is pegged at 38 cents and $42.26 billion, respectively.

The earnings estimate for the to-be-reported quarter has moved up by a cent over the past 60 days but implies a 22.5% decline from the corresponding quarter of 2024. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a 2% decline from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for F’s automotive revenues is pegged at $168.2 billion, suggesting a decline of 2.5% year over year. The consensus mark for full-year EPS is $1.17, calling for a 36.4% year-over-year contraction.

In the trailing four quarters, this U.S. legacy automaker surpassed EPS estimates on three occasions and matched on the other.

Q3 Earnings Whispers for F

Our proprietary model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Ford this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Ford has an Earnings ESP of -4.75% and a Zacks Rank #3.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Shaping Ford’s Q3 Results

Ford sold 545,522 vehicles in the United States in the third quarter of 2025, up 8.2% year over year, extending its streak to seven straight months of sales growth. Strong demand from the namesake brand offset lower volumes from the luxury brand Lincoln. High demand for pickups aided volumes. Additionally, the company's electric vehicle sales (EV) also rose as customers rushed to avail the $7,500 EV tax incentive before its expiration on Sept. 30.

The Mustang Mach-E posted its best-ever quarterly sales with 20,177 units sold, up 50.7% year over year, while the F-150 Lightning achieved a third-quarter record of 10,005 units, up 39.7% year over year, maintaining its lead as America’s top-selling electric pickup. Total EV sales of the company grew more than 30% to a record quarterly total of 30,600 units.

Other auto giants like Tesla TSLA and General Motors GM also benefited from this “pull forward” effect. Both the companies logged record EV sales. General Motors delivered 66,501 EVs during the quarter, up 107%. Tesla delivered 497,099 units, up 7.4% year over year.

Here’s a rundown of the estimates for Ford’s revenues for key segments for the three months ended Sept. 30.

Our estimate for revenues from the Ford Blue unit (comprising ICE and hybrid models) is $23.5 billion, implying a decrease of 10% year over year. We forecast revenues from the Ford Model E unit (comprising electric vehicles) to be $2.67 billion, compared with $1.17 billion in the corresponding period in 2024. Our model estimates for revenues from the Ford Pro unit (encompassing commercial vehicles and services) stand at $17.7 billion, implying growth of 13% year over year. Notably, Ford Pro Intelligence software subscriptions rose about 30% year over year in the third quarter of 2025, with 815,000 active subscribers.

One factor that is likely to dent the company’s margins is high recall costs. Ford issued a string of recalls during the quarter under discussion. In July, it issued a recall for 850,000 Ford and Lincoln vehicles due to a faulty fuel pump. In August, the company recalled 355,000 trucks for instrument panel issues, followed by nearly 500,000 SUVs over defective brake hoses. And last month, it grabbed headlines for recalling more than 1.45 million vehicles, including popular SUVs, trucks and vans, due to faulty rearview cameras, 

Ford has issued more than 100 recalls this year alone — the most by any automaker. That track record is costly. Warranty and recall expenses have ballooned, which could eat into margins and reduce flexibility to invest further in future technology. Additionally, tariff costs are expected to clip third-quarter profits.

F’s Price Performance & Valuation

Year to date, shares of Ford have risen more than 17%, outperforming the industry. They have also performed better than Tesla and General Motors, whose shares have risen 6% and 7%, respectively, so far in 2025.

YTD Price Performance Comparison

From a valuation perspective, Ford is trading relatively cheaper. Going by its price/sales ratio, the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.29, below the industry’s 3.33. The company has a Value Score of A.

How to Play Ford Pre-Q3 Earnings

Ford remains a strong player in the U.S. auto market, with products that continue to appeal to American buyers.Its hybrid strategy is gaining traction, and a key bright spot is Ford Pro—where demand remains robust, particularly for its Super Duty trucks. Ford is also seeing growing interest in its software, fleet management and service offerings. Ample liquidity (roughly $46 billion, including $28 billion in cash at the end of the second quarter of 2025) and an attractive dividend yield of around 5% further strengthen its position.

However, challenges persist. The company is facing tariff headwinds, incurring $800 million in related costs in the second quarter alone, with total gross tariff costs expected to reach $3 billion in 2025. Losses in its EV division due to pricing pressure and heavy investments add to the strain.

Additionally, Ford is temporarily reducing production of several models, including its popular SUVs, after a major fire at key aluminum supplier Novelis’ plant. Output of the Expedition and Lincoln Navigator SUVs at the Kentucky Truck Plant will be paused as the aluminum shortage disrupts operations.

Overall, this may not be the ideal time to buy the stock. While existing investors can hold for the long term, new investors should wait for Ford’s upcoming earnings and management’s commentary on tariffs and supply chain developments.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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