PGR Q3 Earnings & Revenues Miss Estimates, Rise Y/Y on Higher Premiums

The Progressive Corporation’s PGR third-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $4.05 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 20.3%. Operating revenues of $22.2 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.6%. 

Shares lost 5.2% in the pre-market trading session to reflect the underperformance. 

However, the bottom line increased 13.1% year over year while the top line increased 12.7%. 

The Progressive Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The Progressive Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The Progressive Corporation Quote

Net premiums written were $21.3 billion in the quarter, up 10% from $19.5 billion a year ago. 

Net premiums earned grew 14% to $20.8 billion. The reported figure missed  the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.1 billion. 

Net realized gain on securities was $288 million, up 2% year over year.

Combined ratio — the percentage of premiums paid out as claims and expenses — deteriorated 50 basis points (bps) from the prior-year quarter’s level to 89.5. The reported figure exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 87.

September Policies in Force

Policies in force were solid in the Personal Lines segment, increasing 13% from the year-ago month’s figure to 36.9 million. The figure came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.  

Special Lines improved 8% to 7 million, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate.  

In the Personal Auto segment, Agency Auto increased 13% year over year to 10.6 million, while Direct Auto jumped 17% to 15.6 million.

Progressive’s Commercial Auto segment policies rose 6% year over year to 1.2 million. The Property business had 3.7 million policies in force, up 6%.

Financial Update

Progressive’s book value per share was $60.45 as of Sept. 30, 2025, up 30.4% from $46.36 as of Sept. 30, 2024.

Return on equity in September 2025  was 37.1%, down from 40.2% reported in the year-ago period. The total debt-to-total capital ratio improved 410 bps to 16.3.  

Zacks Rank

Progressive currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Upcoming Releases

RLI Corporation RLI is set to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 20, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 61 cents, suggesting a decrease of 6.2% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

RLI’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters, while missing in one.

Chubb Limited CB is slated to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 21, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $5.94 per share, indicating an increase of 3.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

CB’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters.

W.R. Berkley Corporation WRB is set to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 20, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $1.07, suggesting an increase of 15.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

WRB’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters and matched in one.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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