Is a Beat in the Cards for Arthur J. Gallagher This Earnings Season?

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. AJG is expected to register an improvement in its top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 30, after the closing bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AJG’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $3.45 billion, indicating 25.8% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.51 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AJG’s third-quarter earnings has moved north 2% in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 11%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for AJG

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Arthur J. Gallagher this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) that increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Arthur J. Gallagher has an Earnings ESP of +0.10%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Price and EPS Surprise

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. price-eps-surprise | Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Quote

Zacks Rank: AJG carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Factors Likely to Shape Q3 Results of AJG

Better performances in both segments are likely to aid AJG’s third-quarter results. New business, solid retention and higher renewal premiums across its business lines are likely to have benefited the third-quarter performance.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fees is pegged at $1 billion, indicating an increase of 10.5% from the prior-year period’s reported number. The consensus mark for commissions is pegged at $1.9 billion, implying 27.7% growth from the prior-year period’s reported number.

Excellent client retention, strong new business production, and increases in customer business activity are expected to have benefited the Risk management segment.

Continued strong customer retention, higher new business generation and increasing renewal premiums, an improvement in interest income earned on own and fiduciary funds are expected to have favored the Brokerage segment. 

Increased commissions and fees, higher supplemental revenues and improved contingent revenues and investment income, as well as strategic mergers and acquisitions, are likely to have driven the top line in the to-be-reported quarter. 

Total expenses are expected to have increased mainly because of higher compensation, reimbursements, interest, amortization and changes in estimated acquisition earnout payables.  

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other insurance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Primerica, Inc. PRI has an Earnings ESP of +2.27% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $5.51 per share, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 2.9%. 

PRI’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

The Allstate Corporation ALL has an Earnings ESP of +9.80% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $6.73 per share, implying an increase of 72.1% from the year-ago reported figure.

ALL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters.

CNA Financial Corporation. CNA has an Earnings ESP of +6.02% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is $1.25, representing a 15.7% year-over-year increase. 

CNA’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research