International Paper Set to Report Q3 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

International Paper Company IP is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 30, before the opening bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IP’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $6.89 billion, indicating 47% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for International Paper’s earnings has moved down 3.6% in the past 60 days to 53 cents per share. The estimate indicates a 20.5% year-over-year decrease.

IP’s Earnings Surprise History

International Paper’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on two occasions, the average surprise being 18.3%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for International Paper

Our model does not predict an earnings beat for IP this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: International Paper has an Earnings ESP of -0.63% at present.

Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).

Factors Likely to Have Shaped IP’s Q3 Performance

On Jan. 31, 2025, International Paper completed the previously announced acquisition of DS Smith, forming a global leader in sustainable packaging solutions focused on the North America and EMEA markets. As a result, the company will now report its financial results in three segments — Packaging Solutions North America, Packaging Solutions EMEA and Global Cellulose Fibers. The company began posting combined reports starting from the first quarter of 2025. 

Reflecting the impacts of the DS Smith acquisition, we expect the Packaging Solutions EMEA segment’s net sales to be $2.37 billion in the third quarter, indicating a significant increase from the $0.32 billion posted in the year-ago quarter. The segment’s operating profit is pegged at $54.2 million, per our model. The Packaging Solutions EMEA segment posted an operating profit of $7 million in the third quarter of 2024. However, weaker-than-expected volumes due to lower industrial production are expected to get reflected in the upcoming results.

We expect Packaging Solutions North America’s net sales to increase 6.3% year over year to $3.87 billion, driven by the addition of the DS Smith North America business. The operating profit is anticipated to skyrocket 112.7% year over year to $404 million in the quarter. 

We expect the Global Cellulose Fibers segment’s net sales to dip 10.6% year over year to $635 million. The segment is expected to report an operating profit of $73.8 million, indicating a year-over-year surge of 84.4%.

International Paper has been witnessing weak packaging demand as inflationary pressures have impacted consumers, and their priorities have shifted toward non-discretionary goods and services. The company’s customers and the broader retail channel have been trying to lower their elevated inventories, impacting the packaging demand. However, these headwinds are likely to have been offset by stable demand in the e-commerce channel and the company’s growth initiatives.

International Paper's Other Updates

On Aug. 21, International Paper announced that it reached a definitive agreement with American Industrial Partners to sell its Global Cellulose Fibers business for $1.5 billion, subject to closing adjustments. The transaction includes the issuance of preferred stock with an aggregate initial liquidation preference of $190 million. 

The company had previously announced the decision to review alternatives for its GCF business last fall as part of its strategy to focus on sustainable packaging solutions. The transaction is expected to close by the year-end, subject to regulatory approvals.

IP Stock's Price Performance

International Paper's shares have gained 4.1% in the past year compared with the industry's 2.3% growth.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some Basic Materials stocks, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM, scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Oct. 29, has an Earnings ESP of +11.44% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Agnico Eagle Mines’ earnings for the third quarter are pegged at $1.68 per share, indicating a year-over-year jump of 47.4%. The company has delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 10%.

Pan American Silver Corp. PAAS, slated to release third-quarter 2025 earnings on Nov. 12, has an Earnings ESP of +2.21% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pan American Silver’s earnings for the third quarter is pegged at 51 cents per share. The estimate indicates a significant climb from the earnings of 32 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter. Pan American Silver delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 45.2%.

CSW Industrials, Inc. CSW, slated to release second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Oct. 30, has an Earnings ESP of +1.10% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

The consensus mark for CSW Industrials’ earnings is pegged at $2.73 per share. It indicates a year-over-year rise of 20.8%. CSW Industrials has delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 5.6%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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