What to Expect From Intercontinental Exchange This Earnings Season

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ICE is expected to register an improvement in its top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 30, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ICE’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.4 billion, indicating 2.7% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.62 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ICE’s third-quarter earnings has moved down 5.8% in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 4.5%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for ICE

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Intercontinental Exchange this time around. This is because the stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) for an earnings beat. This is not the case, as you can see below.

Earnings ESP: Intercontinental Exchange has an Earnings ESP of -0.72%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.61 is pegged below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.62. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. price-eps-surprise | Intercontinental Exchange Inc. Quote

Zacks Rank: ICE carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.

Factors Likely to Shape Q3 Results of ICE

Continued strong trends across fixed-income data and analytics and an acceleration in growth in other data and network services businesses are likely to have aided the third-quarter performance of Intercontinental Exchange. 

Improved pricing and reference data business, strength in index business growth in ICE Global Network offering, coupled with strength in consolidated feeds, desktop, and derivative analytics revenues, are likely to have favored Fixed Income and Data Services revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Fixed Income and Data Services revenues is pegged at $612 million, while our estimate is pinned at $616.9 million. 

The Exchange segment is likely to have benefited from higher volumes in energy futures and options markets, financial futures and options markets, increased cash equities volume, improved data and connectivity services revenues, as well as listings revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pinned at $1.9 billion, while our estimate for the same is pegged at $2 billion. 

Increased origination technology revenues, closing solutions revenues, MSP mortgage servicing system revenues, and default management revenues are expected to have aided the Mortgage Technology segment’s revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s revenues is pegged at $528 million. We expect the metric to be $491.2 million.

Expenses are likely to have increased owing to higher compensation and benefits, professional expenses, acquisition-related transaction costs, and technology and communication costs. We estimate expenses to increase 2.2% to $981.3 million.

For the third quarter of 2025, GAAP operating expenses are expected in the range of $1.45-$1.55 billion. Adjusted operating expenses are projected to be between $999 million and $1.005 billion. Non-operating expense is anticipated to be between $170 million and $175 million.

Continued share buybacks are likely to have added to the upside.

ICE reported a 0.2% increase in third-quarter average daily volume (ADV). Total Commodities ADV was down 2.2% year over year, while Energy ADV decreased 1.6% year over year. Total Financials ADV increased 3.6% in the third quarter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some finance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Allstate Corporation ALL has an Earnings ESP of +9.80% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $6.73 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 72.1%.

ALL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters.

S&P Global SPGI has an Earnings ESP of +1.66% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $4.40 per share, implying an increase of 13.1% from the year-ago reported figure.

SPGI’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters.

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. CBOE has an Earnings ESP of +3.11% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.46 per share, implying an increase of 10.8% from the year-ago reported figure.

CBOE’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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