Should You Fear a Bear Market & Recession? ETFs in Focus

The tech-focused Nasdaq officially entered bear market territory on April 4, 2025, falling over 20% from its December peak. The plunge came as Wall Street grew increasingly anxious about the economic health amid President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement.

A recent survey by the American Association of Individual Investors showed that about 62% of respondents now expect market declines over the next six months — the most pessimistic reading in over a year. With stock prices sinking and both consumer and corporate confidence deteriorating, financial experts are foreseeing a global growth slowdown.

Why Shouldn’t You Fear a Bear Market?

A bear market is defined by a decline of at least 20% in investment prices from recent highs. The Nasdaq’s recent fall of 22% from its peak goes with this definition.

Since 1942, the average Bear Market period in the S&P 500 lasted 11.1 months with an average cumulative loss of -31.7%. Despite these downturns, market recoveries following bear markets often see strong gains. Historically, the average Bull Market period lasted 4.3 years with an average cumulative total return of 150.0%, per FT Portfolios.

Why Bear Markets Happen

A bear market typically reflects investor expectations that corporate earnings and sales will decline. In today’s case, the market is pricing in trade uncertainty well in advance of the actual event. The stock market fell amid the possibility of a recession about six months in advance, but not every bear market results in a recession.

Will a Recession Happen At All? Should You Panic If It Hits?

A recession is generally defined as six successive months of shrinking economic activity, measured by GDP.  Since 1950, the United States has experienced 11 recessions, each averaging 11 months in duration, as quoted on a Money.com article. The most severe was the Great Recession from December 2007 to June 2009.

The U.S. economy expanded an annualized 2.4% in Q4 2024, slightly higher than 2.3% in the previous estimates. The scenario is not too bad. The labor market is still strong. Nonfarm payrolls in March increased 228,000, up from the revised 117,000 in February and better than the Dow Jones estimate of 140,000.

Investors should note that if the economy slows and inflation remains under control, we can see the return of a super-dovish Fed. As of now, two rate cuts are expected this year, the number of which can go up if the economy slows. This, in turn, may boost the stock market all over again.

Definitely, recessions are frightening as consumers and corporations adjust their behavior in anticipation of a disturbing downturn, but past occurrences tell us not to be perturbed already. Things normally improve once the economy gains momentum.

ETFs in Focus

Against this backdrop, one can stick to the quality and defensive exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These ETFs have beaten the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY (down 15%) this year (as of April 8).

Vanguard European Stock Index Fund ETF VGK

The underlying FTSE Developed Europe All Cap Index measures the investment return of stocks issued by companies located in the major markets of Europe. The fund charges 6 bps in fees and yields 3.41% annually and has lost 0.7% this year.

SPDR SSGA US Large Cap Low Volatility Index ETF LGLV

The underlying SSGA US Large Cap Low Volatility Index is designed to track the performance of U.S. large-capitalization companies that exhibit low volatility. The fund charges 12 bps in fees, yields 2.05% annually and has lost 4% this year.

ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF NOBL

The underlying S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index targets companies that are currently members of the S&P 500, have increased dividend payments each year for at least 25 years and meet certain market capitalization and liquidity requirements. The fund charges 35 bps in fees, yields 2.25% annually and has retreated 8% this year.

Global X SuperDividend ETF SDIV

The underlying Solactive Global SuperDividend Index tracks the performance of 100 equally weighted companies that rank among the highest dividend-yielding equity securities in the world. The index provider applies certain dividend stability filters. The fund charges 58 bps in fees, yields 12.48% annually and has lost 12.6% this year.

First Trust Dorsey Wright Momentum & Low Vol ETF DVOL

The underlying Dorsey Wright Momentum Plus Low Volatility Index seeks to track the overall performance of 50 stocks within the NASDAQ US Large Mid Cap Index that exhibit the lowest levels of volatility while maintaining high levels of relative strength. The ETF charges 60 bps in fees. The fund is off 5.4% this year.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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