McDonald's Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: Key Factors to Note

McDonald's Corporation MCD is slated to release third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 5, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.3%. MCD surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, and met once. The average surprise for this period is 1%, as shown in the chart below.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) has decreased to $3.35 from $3.40 in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 3.7% increase from the year-ago EPS of $3.23. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $7.07 billion, indicating 2.8% year-over-year growth.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for MCD Stock

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for McDonald's this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.

MCD’s Earnings ESP: McDonald's has an Earnings ESP of -1.09%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

McDonald's Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.

Factors Influencing MCD’s Q3 Performance

McDonald’s top-line performance in the third quarter of 2025 is likely to have been driven by continued growth in global comparable sales, supported by steady customer traffic, menu innovation, digital engagement and ongoing expansion initiatives. The company’s emphasis on strategic marketing and its efforts to make its platform as affordable as possible have likely resonated well with consumers, particularly in an increasingly value-conscious environment.

McDonald’s strong performance across major international markets is also expected to have supported its upcoming quarterly results. The company’s meal bundles and Everyday Affordable Price menus have been particularly successful, especially as Europe continues to face high inflation. These value-driven offerings and affordable options have enhanced customer perception of value and affordability across most of its key markets.

We expect third-quarter total U.S. revenues to increase 0.1% year over year to $2,675.3 million. Revenues from total International Operated Markets are expected to be $3,343.3 million, indicating a 2.4% increase year over year. Total International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate revenues are expected to increase 6.9% year over year to $865.6 million.

Continuous menu innovation and the implementation of the Accelerating the Arches strategy, along with initiatives such as the $5 meal deal and Edge — the company’s digital foundation for restaurant innovation — are expected to have added to the growth momentum. Together, these factors have likely helped offset macroeconomic headwinds and kept revenue growth on a solid trajectory.

However, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, including elevated inflation and persistently low quick-service restaurant traffic in the United States, continue to challenge the company by pressuring consumer discretionary spending and are likely to impact its bottom line. Additionally, rising cost pressures — particularly in Europe — are expected to have weighed on margins despite MCD’s pricing initiatives.

McDonald's Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

McDonald's Corporation price-eps-surprise | McDonald's Corporation Quote

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies in the Zacks restaurants sector that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the quarter to be reported.

Macy's M currently has an Earnings ESP of +22.81% and a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Macy's earnings are expected to register a 450% year-over-year decrease. Macy's earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, missed on one occasion, with an average beat of 25.8%.

Dutch Bros Inc. BROS currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.93% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Dutch Bros’ earnings are expected to increase 6.3%. Dutch Bros’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 91.9%.

Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI has an Earnings ESP of +9.39% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Darden’s earnings are expected to register a 3.5% year-over-year increase. Darden’s earnings beat estimates in one out of the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, with an average miss of 0.54%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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