MEOH's Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates as Average Realized Prices Fall

Methanex Corporation MEOH logged a third-quarter 2025 loss (attributable to shareholders) of $7 million or 9 cents per share. This compares unfavorably with a profit of $31 million or 35 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Adjusted earnings per share (barring one-time items) in the reported quarter were 6 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 51 cents.

Revenues fell roughly 0.9% year over year to $927 million in the quarter. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $974 million.

Adjusted EBITDA in the reported quarter fell around 11.6% year over year to $191 million. 

Methanex Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Methanex Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Methanex Corporation Quote

MEOH’s Operational Highlights

Production in the quarter totaled 2,212,000 tons, up 64.2% year over year. Production also increased from the prior quarter due to additional production from Beaumont and Natgasoline after completing the OCI acquisition, and higher production from Geismar, Medicine Hat and New Zealand. The figure beat our estimate of 2,171,000 tons.

Total sales volume in the third quarter totaled 2,476,000 tons, down 5.6% year over year. The figure missed our estimate of 2,837,000 tons.

The average realized price for methanol was $345 per ton in the quarter, down from $356 per ton in the prior-year quarter. The figure matched our estimate.

MEOH’s Financials

Cash and cash equivalents were roughly $413.4 million at the end of the quarter. Cash flow from operating activities was $184 million in the quarter. The company returned $14.3 million to shareholders through dividends in the reported quarter.

MEOH’s Outlook

The company expects its 2025 production to be approximately 8 million tons, subject to fluctuation due to gas availability, scheduled maintenance, unexpected outages, or other unforeseen events.

The company expects higher adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2025 than in the third quarter, owing to higher sales volume of produced methanol, offset by a modestly lower average realized price. Based on the prices stated in October and November, the company expects the average realized price to be between $335 and $345 per ton for these two months.

MEOH’s Price Performance

Shares of Methanex have gained 2.2% in the past year against the 25.2% decline in the industry.

MEOH’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

MEOH currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Some better-ranked stocks worth a look in the basic materials space are Royal Gold, Inc. RGLD, Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. ASM and Fortuna Mining Corp. FSM.

Royal Gold is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov. 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RGLD’s third-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.30 per share. RGLD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 8.95%. Royal Gold currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Avino Silver is slated to report third-quarter results on Nov. 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings is pegged at 3 cents per share. ASM’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 141.67%. Avino Silver carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present.

Fortuna Mining is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov. 5. FSM carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. Fortuna Mining’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in one of the last four quarters and missed three times.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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