ADP Rebounds to +42K, Plus Q3 Earnings from MCD & more

Wednesday, November 5, 2025

Like an oasis in the desert, this morning’s Automatic Data Processing ADP private-sector payroll report for October is out ahead of today’s opening bell. If these were regular times, this would merely be the latest piece of data in a full Jobs Week. As it is, this may be the only jobs report we get until the government reopens.
 

ADP Improves on Large-Firm Hiring: +42K

October ADP private-sector jobs numbers posted a headline of +42K new positions filled. This is an improvement of +20K above expectations and a swing to the positive from an upwardly revised -29K the prior month. It’s also the first month since July where we’ve seen positive private-sector jobs growth.

That said, it’s now crystal clear that the American labor market is in decline. Even with this better-than-expected ADP report this morning, we’re averaging a gain of just +29K new jobs in the private sector over the last four months. Compare this to the four months prior, +53K, and the four months before that: +197K. 

Goods-producing jobs grew by +9K last month, +33K on the Services side. Both small and medium-sized companies posted negative private-sector jobs growth in October, while large firms (over 500 employees) made up the difference: +73K. But as ADP’s Chief Economist Nela Richardson pointed out this morning, three out of four American workers have a job at a company with fewer than 250 employees.

The breakdown by industry is somewhat surprising, in that we might have thought tariff policy may have had something to do with this slowdown in private-sector employment, but Trade/Transportation/Utilities grew +47K to lead the way, followed by Education/Healthcare at +26K. Among those in the negative column include normal job-growth bellwethers Leisure/Hospitality, -6K, and Professional/Business Services -15K.

Richardson herself called it a “tepid recovery,” coming as this report does after two months in the red. Job Stayers averaged wage gains of +4.5%, whereas Job Changers added +6.7%. This is a narrow gap historically; normally job changers can be expected to take a step up in pay. This metric also points to less of an urge for employees to seek jobs elsewhere at this time.
 

Q3 Earnings Results at a Glance: MCD, HUM & More

McDonald’s MCD missed its earnings estimate ahead of today’s open, with $3.22 per share coming in beneath the $3.35 in the Zacks consensus. By same-store sales rose +3.6% in the quarter, prodding the stock up +3% in pre-market, nearly doubling what the company has made year-to-date. Revenues of $7.08 billion were ahead of estimates by +0.15%. For more on MCD’s earnings, click here.

Humana HUM posted a strong earnings beat of +11.34% — $3.24 per share versus $2.91 expected — on revenues of $32.65 billion, which outpaced expectations by +2.09%. But lowered guidance in the company’s report this morning are leading shares lower, -5.5% at this hour. For more on HUM’s earnings, click here.

This morning’s biggest winner comes from Aurora Cannabis ACB, which put out earnings of $0.09 per share compared with $0.03 anticipated for a whopping +200% positive earnings surprise. Revenues reached a record quarterly high (no pun intended) to $70.5 million, up +15% year over year. Shares are +9% in pre-market trading.

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