Should Investors Still be Hyped for Shopify Stock?

Although they share different roles in the broader digital shopping ecosystem, the hype for Shopify’s SHOP business commerce platform has often mirrored the excitement for Amazon's AMZN retail endeavors. 

In fact, over the last three years, Shopify stock has skyrocketed more than +400%, leaving the very pleasant performances of the broader indexes in the dust and even Amazon’s +175%.

The provider of unique tools that allow businesses to build and manage their own online stores received more momentum after announcing a partnership with OpenAI in September to integrate commerce directly into ChatGPT.

However, Shopify posted Q3 earnings on Tuesday that were favorable but underwhelmed the market’s growing expectations. 

Product Innovation Boosts Shopify’s Merchant Activity

Making its platform more attractive to merchants, Shopify’s commerce operations have been enhanced with AI tools, payment installments, and expanded point of sales (POS) capabilities.

Reflecting strong consumer demand and merchant expansion, Shopify's Q3 Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) increased 22% year over year to $56.2 billion. Shopify’s subscription revenue grew nicely as well, fueled by growth in monthly recurring revenue (MRR), which soared 25% to $142 million.

Furthermore, Shopify’s top line expanded 32% to $2.84 billion, beating Q3 estimates of $2.75 billion. Following a tougher operating period to compete against, Shopify’s Q3 earnings of $0.34 per share dipped from EPS of $0.36 a year ago but were in line with the Zacks Consenus.  

Shopify’s Strong Efficiency Metrics

Despite Shopify’s weaker profit, its ability to convert revenue into operating efficiency and reinvestment capacity was on display. To that point, Shopify’s free cash flow (FCF) spiked 78% during Q3 to $507 million compared to $285 million in the comparative quarter. Even better, this marked Shopify’s ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit free cash flow margins, with Q3 FCF margins at 18%.

More compelling is that Shopify’s FCF conversion rate is well over 80%, illustrating that the company efficiently turns its operating profits into free cash flow. Bolstering Shopify’s efficiency and financial health, its Return on Investment Capital (ROIC) is typically between 14%-19%, with a 10% or higher mark reflecting a strong ability to turn capital investments into profits and alludes to long-term profitability and value for shareholders.

Shopify’s Q4 Guidance & Outlook  

Emphasizing strong momentum heading into the holiday shopping season and continued investment in innovation and global expansion, Shopify guided Q4 revenue growth in the mid to high 20% range. Additionally, Shopify expects to maintain full-year FCF margins in the double digits as well.

Based on Zacks' estimates, Shopify’s top line is expected to expand over 20% in fiscal 2025 and FY26, with projections edging north of $13 billion. Taking advantage of its rapid sales expansion, Shopify’s annual EPS is now slated to be up 11% in FY25 and is projected to increase another 21% in FY26 to $1.76.

Conclusion & Final Thoughts 

At over $160 a share, Shopify stock is commanding a noticeable forward earnings premium of 110X, but its efficiency metrics are reason to believe the business commerce leader will grow into its lofty valuation like Amazon has. In this regard, it's important to note that Amazon went public more than a decade earlier than Shopify. 

For now, the hype for Shopify stock could still be on, with SHOP sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) in correlation with an EPS revision trend that has supported the company's enticing growth trajectory.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research