Here's How to Play Barrick Mining Stock Before Q3 Earnings Release

Barrick Mining Corporation B is slated to come up with third-quarter 2025 results before the opening bell on Nov. 10. The company’s performance is expected to reflect higher gold prices and strong production amid cost headwinds.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings has been stable in the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at 57 cents per share, suggesting an 83.9% year-over-year rise. 

B beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters, missed once and reported in line results on the other occasion. In this timeframe, it delivered an earnings surprise of roughly 6.7%, on average.

Q3 Earnings Whispers for B Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Barrick this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

B has an Earnings ESP of +3.06% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Shaping B’s Q3 Results

Higher gold prices are likely to have supported the company’s performance in the September quarter. Gold prices have seen a record-setting upswing this year as worries over the global trade war have boosted safe-haven demand for bullion. Prices hit new highs driven by a surge in safe-haven demand amid the intense trade tussle, global economic uncertainties and a weaker U.S. dollar. 

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate reduction, hopes of more rate cuts amid concerns over the labor market, along with concerns over a protracted U.S. government shutdown and U.S.-China trade tensions, triggered the recent rally, driving prices north of $4,000 per ton for the first time. Prices of the yellow metal closed nearly 17% higher in the third quarter and have surged roughly 52% this year.

Higher production is also expected to continued to have driven B’s sales volumes in the third quarter. Barrick saw higher gold production in the second quarter, delivering 797,000 ounces, a 5% increase from the prior quarter. It is expected to have continued the production momentum in the to-be-reported quarter. B expects 2025 production to be 54% weighted in the second half, with the strongest output expected in the fourth quarter. The consensus estimate for production for the to-be-reported quarter stands at 858,000 ounces, reflecting a rise of around 7% sequentially. 

Higher year-over-year production costs are likely to have weighed on the company’s third-quarter results. Its cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — increased around 17% and 12% year over year, respectively, in the second quarter. AISC of $1,684 increased from the year-ago quarter due to higher total cash costs per ounce, although declining 5% from the previous quarter. Lower year-over-year production, partly due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine, also contributed to the rise in its unit costs. Cost pressures are likely to have continued in the third quarter.

For 2025, Barrick continues to see total cash costs per ounce of $1,050-$1,130 and AISC in the range of $1,460-$1,560 per ounce. These projections suggest a year-over-year increase at the midpoint of the respective ranges.

Barrick Stock’s Price Performance and Valuation

B’s shares have shot up 77.4% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 72.8% increase and the S&P 500’s rise of 16.4%. Among its peers, Newmont Corporation NEM, Kinross Gold Corporation KGC and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM have rallied 83.2%, 144.1% and 92%, respectively, over the same period.

B’s One-year Stock Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, B is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 11.71. This represents a roughly 1.6% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 11.9X. B is trading at a discount to Kinross Gold, Newmont and Agnico Eagle. Barrick Mining, Newmont and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B, each, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of C.  

B’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NEM, KGC & AEM

Investment Thesis for B Stock

Barrick is well-positioned to benefit from the progress in key growth projects that should significantly contribute to its production. Its major gold and copper growth projects are advancing per schedule and within budget, which underpins the next generation of profitable production. 

B has a robust liquidity position and generates healthy cash flows, which positions it well to take advantage of attractive development, exploration and acquisition opportunities, as well as drive shareholder value and reduce debt. Higher gold prices should translate into strong profit margins and free cash flow generation.

Barrick is challenged by higher costs, which may eat into its margins. Increased mine-site sustaining capital spending, higher labor costs and potentially steeper energy costs may lead to higher costs.

Final Thoughts: Hold Onto B Shares

Barrick is well-placed with a strong pipeline of growth projects, solid financial health, a healthy growth trajectory and favorable gold market conditions. The strength in gold prices should also boost its profitability and drive cash flow generation. Despite these positives, its high production costs warrant caution. Holding onto the B stock will be prudent for investors who already own it, awaiting more clarity on the company’s prospects following its forthcoming earnings release. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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