How to Play Gold's Unstoppable Rally With ETFs

The rally in gold is showing no signs of slowing down as the yellow metal topped $3,200 per ounce for the first time after breaching $3,100 just a few days before. Strong safe-haven demand amid Trump’s tariff chaos has been driving gold higher. 

We have highlighted several reasons for the solid rally in gold price. The solid trend in the bullion is likely to continue at least for the short term, with analysts expecting further gains this year.

Tariff Chaos

President Donald Trump’s set of tariffs has triggered global trade war fears and uncertainty about an economic slowdown, wiping off trillions of dollars on Wall Street. This has lured investors to shift to defensive investments. Gold is often used to preserve wealth during financial and political uncertainty and usually does well when other asset classes struggle. Additionally, the inflationary pressure caused by new tariffs will benefit the precious metal's status as a hedge against rising prices (read: S&P 500's Worst 4-Day Drop: 5 Stocks in the ETF That Look Cheap).

Renewed Fed Rate Cuts Hope

The potential for faster-than-expected Fed rate cuts added further shine to the yellow metal, pushing gold ETFs higher. With the latest data showing that U.S. inflation cooled broadly in March, traders are now pricing in expectations for three interest rate cuts over the remainder of the year, with a chance of a fourth. Lower interest rates will continue to support gold prices as these raise the yellow metal’s attractiveness compared with fixed-income assets such as bonds. Notably, gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, as these increase the opportunity costs of holding non-yielding bullion. 

Weak Dollar

Gold’s rally is also buoyed by a weaker dollar. Notably, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of global currencies, dropped to the lowest level since September.

Central Bank Purchase

Apart from these, central banks are among the major drivers of gold prices. The banks are dominant buyers of gold as they seek to diversify their reserves away from the U.S. dollar. In particular, China extended its purchases for the fourth consecutive month in February. According to the latest report from the World Gold Council, global gold demand reached a record high in 2024, driven by sustained central bank buying and growth in investment demand. Central banks accumulated more than 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year. Global investment demand increased 25% year over year.

ETFs Flow Turns Hot

Gold ETFs saw an inflow of 226.5 metric tons worth $21.1 billion in the first quarter, representing the largest quarterly inflow in three years in the first quarter, according to data from the World Gold Council (WGC). In dollar terms, ETF inflows surged to $21.1 billion in the first quarter, their highest level since the second quarter of 2020, when markets were battered by the COVID-19 pandemic (read: Why Investors Should Rush to Gold ETFs?).

Analysts Going Bullish

Analysts at Bank of America recently raised the target price on gold to $3,500 per ounce from $3,000 over the coming 18 months, while Goldman Sachs lifted the target price from $3,100 to $3,300 for 2025, citing stronger-than-expected ETF inflows and sustained central bank demand. Macquarie Group predicts the precious metal will touch $3,500 in the third quarter of this year.

ETF Ways to Play

Given the optimism, investors have a few ways to get exposure to gold through ETFs. Below, we have highlighted some of them: 

Physical Gold ETFs 

These ETFs track the price of gold by holding physical bullion. Some of the most popular funds in this category are SPDR Gold Trust ETF GLD, iShares Gold Trust IAU, SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust GLDM, abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF SGOL and iShares Gold Trust Micro IAUM. 

Gold Mining ETFs

These ETFs hold stocks of companies that mine gold. They tend to experience more gains or losses than gold in a rising or falling metal market. Market Vectors Gold Mining ETF GDX, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF GDXJ and iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF RING are the most popular with AUMs of $13.3 billion, $4.6 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively (read: Gold (GLD) or Gold Mining (GDX): Which ETF is Better?). 

Leveraged Gold ETFs

These funds aim to return two times (2x) or three times (3x) the daily performance of gold or gold miners. Investors who are bullish on gold may consider these ETFs. ProShares Ultra Gold ETF UGL and DB Gold Double Long ETN DGP offer 2x the return of the daily performance of the Bloomberg Gold Subindex and the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index Optimum Yield Gold, respectively.

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares NUGT provides two times exposure to the daily performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2x Shares provides 2x exposure to the daily performance of the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index. MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X Leveraged ETN GDXU seeks to deliver three times the performance of the S-Network MicroSectors Gold Miners Index.
 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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