Bear of the Day: The Trade Desk (TTD)

Every once in a while, a Wall Street darling gets too far ahead of itself. The story is great, the growth is undeniable, and the enthusiasm? Off the charts. But when expectations rise faster than earnings, gravity has a funny way of pulling everything back down to Earth. That’s exactly what’s happening with today’s Bear of the Day right now.

I’m talking about Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) The Trade Dek (TTD). Once the undisputed king of programmatic advertising, the company’s latest results show cracks forming beneath its premium valuation.

The Trade Desk’s Q3 numbers weren’t bad, they just weren’t enough. Revenue grew 23% year-over-year to $597 million, and EPS came in at $0.38, missing consensus by a penny. Normally, a small miss like that wouldn’t trigger an avalanche, but when you’re trading at nearly 50x forward earnings, “good” isn’t good enough. The bigger problem is guidance. Management’s Q4 outlook for roughly 20% revenue growth disappointed investors expecting another blowout. The digital ad market remains uneven, and while connected TV continues to grow, competition from behemoths like Google, Amazon, and even Netflix’s new ad tier is squeezing margins.

The Trade Desk Price and Consensus

The Trade Desk price-consensus-chart | The Trade Desk Quote

When the Zacks Rank dropped The Trade Desk to a #5 (Strong Sell), it wasn’t personal, it was math. Analysts have been cutting estimates across the board. Over the last sixty days, two analysts have cut estimates for the current year while four have done so for next year. The bearish moves have cut our Zacks Consensus Estimates for the current year from $1.78 to $1.76 while next year’s number is off from $2.14 to $2.10. The good news for investors is that means the company is still forecast to grow earnings by 6% this year and 19% next year.

There are some other stocks in the Internet – Services industry which ranks in the Bottom 39% of our Zacks Industry Rank. These include Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stocks Crexendo (CXDO) and HealthStream (HSTM).

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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