Where Shopify Could Be by 2030

Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP) has already transformed how millions of merchants sell online. However, the next five years could redefine the company altogether.

As global retail continues its shift toward digital infrastructure, Shopify's ambition is expanding beyond storefronts. The company that once helped entrepreneurs launch websites is now building the plumbing for global commerce -- connecting payments, logistics, identity, and data across the internet.

If the last decade was about helping small businesses get online, the next one may be about powering every transaction that happens there. Here's what Shopify could look like by 2030 -- and why this evolution matters for long-term investors.

Image source: Getty Images.

Shopify could become the internet's commerce layer

By 2030, Shopify may be less known for its e-commerce SaaS website templates and more recognized as the back-end infrastructure for modern retail.

The company's initiatives point clearly in this direction. Its Commerce Components offering lets large enterprises integrate Shopify's best-performing modules -- such as checkout, analytics, and storefront APIs -- into their own systems. Meanwhile, the Partner Solutions Center, launched in 2025, connects Shopify with global system integrators to deploy enterprise-grade solutions at scale.

This shift means that Shopify is no longer just serving entrepreneurs; it is now serving a broader range of businesses. It's embedding itself into the core systems of major retailers, much like Stripe powers online payments.

At the same time, tools like Shop Pay and the Model Context Protocol (MCP) extend Shopify's reach beyond its own platform. Shop Pay can process transactions beyond Shopify's ecosystem and across other countries, while MCP enables third-party AI agents to interact directly with Shopify stores.

If these trends continue, Shopify could become the "commerce layer of the internet" -- the infrastructure behind how digital transactions happen everywhere.

A business model tilted toward infrastructure and data

If Shopify succeeds in becoming infrastructure, its economics could change dramatically. Historically, Shopify's revenue depended on subscriptions and transaction fees from small and mid-sized businesses. By 2030, the mix could look very different:

• Recurring usage from APIs, enterprise services, and payments may become increasingly important.
• Operating leverage could expand as infrastructure scales with minimal added cost.

The company is already hinting at this transition. Shopify's merchant solutions -- payments and financing products -- are growing faster than subscription revenue. In the second quarter of 2025, the former grew by 37% compared to the latter, which grew by 17%, reflecting a steady shift toward infrastructure-based revenue.

While these services typically earn lower margins than Shopify's SaaS subscriptions, they benefit from strong operating leverage -- meaning that as volume scales, free cash flow can expand much faster than revenue.

This change in financials is what distinguishes infrastructure economics from traditional software: Once the network is built, growth doesn't require matching expense growth. If Shopify continues on this path, its margins by 2030 could resemble those of a fintech network or cloud platform, rather than a pure SaaS company.

Expanding globally and across channels

The next five years could also mark Shopify's most aggressive international expansion. Its partnership with Global-e positions Shopify to power cross-border sales for major brands, while localized payments and logistics partners extend its footprint in Europe, Latin America, and Asia. As emerging markets digitize, Shopify's model -- a mix of software, payments, and fulfillment -- is uniquely adaptable for local entrepreneurs.

Omnichannel commerce will likely play a key role. Shopify's point-of-sale (POS) system already connects physical and online stores, and integrations with platforms like TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram continue to blur the line between discovery and purchase.

By 2030, Shopify may become the default platform not just for selling online, but for running a commerce business end-to-end -- from marketing to payment processing to fulfillment.

For investors, this global expansion is critical. It means Shopify's addressable market will no longer be limited to small North American merchants. It will participate in the $28 trillion global retail economy, capturing value from every channel where commerce occurs.

What does it mean for investors?

Five years from now, Shopify could look very different from the company investors know today. It may generate a larger share of its revenue from payments, APIs, and data-driven services, serving not just small businesses but also multinational retailers, and powering transactions across websites, apps, and AI agents.

In other words, Shopify could quietly become the infrastructure layer of global commerce, just like how Nvidia has become the infrastructure layer of artificial intelligence. It's a company that investors should closely track.

Lawrence Nga has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Global-E Online, Nvidia, and Shopify. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.