JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Up 4.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM). Shares have added about 4.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is JPMorgan Chase & Co. due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for JPMorgan Chase & Co. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

JPM's Q3 Earnings Beat as IB & Trading Businesses Shine

Impressive trading and IB performance drove JPMorgan’s third-quarter 2025 earnings of $5.07 per share. The bottom line handily surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.83.

Markets revenues were impressive and exceeded management's expectations of growth in the high-teens percentage rate. The metric soared 25% to $8.9 billion. Specifically, fixed-income markets revenues jumped 21% to $5.6 billion, while equity markets numbers increased 33% to $3.3 billion. Our estimates for fixed-income and equity markets revenues were $5.37 billion and $2.9 billion, respectively.

Moreover, the IB business performance was far stronger than expected by management. Advisory fees rose 9%, with debt and equity underwriting fees growing 53% and 9%, respectively. Overall, total IB fees (in the CIB segment) were up 16% from the prior-year quarter to $2.63 billion. The company had projected IB fees to be up in the low double digits during the quarter.

The company recorded an increase in net interest income (NII), driven by higher yields and 7% year-over-year jump in total loans. Among other positives, CCB's average loan balances were up 1% year over year. Also, debit and credit card sales volume increased 9%. 

On the other hand, mortgage fees and related income fell 5% to $383 million. We had projected the metric to be $313.2 million. During the quarter, operating expenses rose. Also, provisions increased during the quarter.

Revenues Rise, Expenses Up

Net revenues, as reported, were $46.43 billion, up 9% year over year. The top line outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $44.86 billion. 

NII rose 2% year over year to $23.97 billion. Our estimate for NII was $24.09 billion.

Non-interest income jumped 17% to $22.46 billion. Our estimate for non-interest income was $19.03 billion.

Non-interest expenses (on a managed basis) were $24.28 billion, up 8% year over year. This was mainly due to higher compensation expenses, brokerage expense and distribution fees, marketing costs and auto lease depreciation. We had projected non-interest expenses to be $23.88 billion.

The performance of JPMorgan’s business segments, in terms of net income generation, was solid. The CIB, Asset & Wealth Management and CCB segments witnessed a rise in net income on a year-over-year basis. On the other hand, the Corporate segment recorded a fall in net income. Overall, net income grew 12% to $14.39 billion. We had projected net income to be $13.57 billion.

Credit Quality Worsens

Provision for credit losses was $3.4 billion, up 9% from the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for the metric was $2.64 billion.

Net charge-offs (NCOs) jumped 24% to $2.59 billion. Also, as of Sept. 30, 2025, non-performing assets (NPAs) were $10.64 billion, surging 23%.

Capital Position Solid

Tier 1 capital ratio (estimated) was 15.8% at the third-quarter end, down from 16.4% in the prior-year quarter. Tier 1 common equity capital ratio (estimated) was 14.8%, down from 15.3%. Total capital ratio was 17.7% (estimated) compared with 18.2% a year ago.

Book value per share was $124.96 as of Sept. 30, 2025, compared with $115.15 a year ago. Tangible book value per common share was $105.7 at the end of September 2025, up from $96.42.

Update on Share Repurchases

During the reported quarter, JPMorgan repurchased 28 million shares for $8.32 billion.

Outlook

The company expects NII to reach almost $25 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, which implies a full-year NII of approximately $95.8 billion. This is higher than the previous target of $95.5 billion.

Excluding Markets, fourth-quarter NII is projected to be $23.5 billion. This shows that NII excluding Markets for full-year 2025 is likely to be $92.2 billion. Further, the company projects 2026 NII excluding Markets to be nearly $95 billion, driven by balance sheet growth and mix, partially offset by the impact of lower rates.

Fourth-quarter adjusted expenses are expected to be $24.5 billion. Hence, management now estimates adjusted non-interest expense to be almost $95.9 billion, up from $95.5 billion targeted previously. It emphasized the importance of artificial intelligence (AI) in boosting efficiency and noted that its technology budget is $18 billion for 2025, up roughly 6% year over year.

Additionally, JPMorgan lowered its 2025 card NCO rate to approximately 3.3% from the previously expected 3.6% “on favorable delinquency trends.”

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

At this time, JPMorgan Chase & Co. has a poor Growth Score of F, a score with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise JPMorgan Chase & Co. has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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