In a wide-ranging interview on the Money Life with Chuck Jaffe podcast this week, Schaeffer’s Senior Market Strategist, Matthew Timpane CMT delivered a clear message: the bears blew their chance. With seasonal tailwinds in play and major technical levels holding, he believes the path of least resistance remains higher into year-end. Even if 2026 could tell a very different story.
Listen to the full podcast now (Matthew's interview is the first 16 minutes!):
Here are the key insights if you don't listen to the full podcast:
“The bears kind of lost their opportunity.”
According to Timpane, the typical October pullback window never materialized. Once the market held above key levels into mid-October, the odds of a deeper correction collapsed.
“It’s the most bullish season of the year.. and I think the bears kind of lost their opportunity for that larger pullback.”
Why it matters: November through January historically delivers outsized returns, and the current technical backdrop supports a drift higher.
Key support levels remain intact
Despite heavy macro headlines, the S&P 500 continues to respect major moving averages, which is something Timpane emphasizes as the real signal.
Support areas he is watching in the coming days:
50-day moving average, recently defended by buyers
80-day moving average, aligned with October lows and large put open interest
SPX 6000 region, a major psychological and technical floor if volatility returns
“We would get a lot more tactical below the 50-day moving average, but you have many levels below that that could be supportive.”
Upside target: 7,000 on the S&P 500
Timpane reaffirmed his year-end target of roughly 7,000 on the S&P 500, which he notes is both a major psychological milestone and the location of a prominent “call wall.”
“Once we broke out, my year-end target became around 7000, a huge psychological level.”
Rotation is not signaling trouble yet
Classic “risk-off” sector leadership simply isn’t showing up.
Matt's sector notes:
Staples: still stuck in a wide 2025 range
Healthcare: stabilizing but not leading
Utilities: distorted by AI-driven electricity demand
Energy: emerging as a new risk-off tell
“We haven’t seen the big names break down... your Googles, your Nvidias are still holding up really well.”
This supports the idea that the bull trend hasn’t structurally broken.
2026 could be a very different market
Timpane was notably cautious looking beyond year-end, pointing to the second year of the presidential cycle and tariff-driven inflation risks.
Presidential cycle stats he mentioned:
Second year returns average only about 3.3% since 1928
Under Republican administrations: only 41% of second years are positive
Trump’s last second year delivered a -6.2% return
“2026 could give people a little bit more trouble... from the seasonal data, it points toward a struggle.”
He also highlighted that tariffs are inflationary by nature and current tariff levels are the highest since the 1930s.
The Schaeffer’s approach: be reactionary, not predictive
Timpane emphasized our core philosophy: follow price and positioning instead of trying to forecast macro outcomes.
The Schaeffer's team stays focused on:
Key technical levels
Open interest positioning
Reaction to major moving averages
Price behavior around crowded strikes
“We’re always more reactionary to what the market is giving us.”
This approach has helped us lean bullish while many investors remained skeptical.
Final outlook: bullish into year-end, cautious into next year
For the remainder of 2025:
For 2026:
Prepare for elevated volatility
Expect tariff-related inflation pockets
Watch energy as a risk-off indicator
Be selective with tech and cyclicals
“We’re probably going to grind higher into year-end... but 2026 could be a struggle.”
