Bears Missed Their Shot: Why the Market Could Grind Higher Into Year-End

In a wide-ranging interview on the Money Life with Chuck Jaffe podcast this week, Schaeffer’s Senior Market Strategist, Matthew Timpane CMT delivered a clear message: the bears blew their chance. With seasonal tailwinds in play and major technical levels holding, he believes the path of least resistance remains higher into year-end. Even if 2026 could tell a very different story.

Listen to the full podcast now (Matthew's interview is the first 16 minutes!):

Here are the key insights if you don't listen to the full podcast:

“The bears kind of lost their opportunity.”

According to Timpane, the typical October pullback window never materialized. Once the market held above key levels into mid-October, the odds of a deeper correction collapsed.

“It’s the most bullish season of the year.. and I think the bears kind of lost their opportunity for that larger pullback.”

Why it matters: November through January historically delivers outsized returns, and the current technical backdrop supports a drift higher.

Key support levels remain intact

Despite heavy macro headlines, the S&P 500 continues to respect major moving averages, which is something Timpane emphasizes as the real signal.

Support areas he is watching in the coming days:

• 50-day moving average, recently defended by buyers

• 80-day moving average, aligned with October lows and large put open interest

• SPX 6000 region, a major psychological and technical floor if volatility returns

“We would get a lot more tactical below the 50-day moving average, but you have many levels below that that could be supportive.”

Upside target: 7,000 on the S&P 500

Timpane reaffirmed his year-end target of roughly 7,000 on the S&P 500, which he notes is both a major psychological milestone and the location of a prominent “call wall.”

“Once we broke out, my year-end target became around 7000, a huge psychological level.”

Rotation is not signaling trouble yet

Classic “risk-off” sector leadership simply isn’t showing up.

Matt's sector notes:

• Staples: still stuck in a wide 2025 range

• Healthcare: stabilizing but not leading

• Utilities: distorted by AI-driven electricity demand

• Energy: emerging as a new risk-off tell

“We haven’t seen the big names break down... your Googles, your Nvidias are still holding up really well.”

This supports the idea that the bull trend hasn’t structurally broken.

2026 could be a very different market

Timpane was notably cautious looking beyond year-end, pointing to the second year of the presidential cycle and tariff-driven inflation risks.

Presidential cycle stats he mentioned:

• Second year returns average only about 3.3% since 1928

• Under Republican administrations: only 41% of second years are positive

• Trump’s last second year delivered a -6.2% return

“2026 could give people a little bit more trouble... from the seasonal data, it points toward a struggle.”

He also highlighted that tariffs are inflationary by nature and current tariff levels are the highest since the 1930s.

The Schaeffer’s approach: be reactionary, not predictive

Timpane emphasized our core philosophy: follow price and positioning instead of trying to forecast macro outcomes.

The Schaeffer's team stays focused on:

• Key technical levels

• Open interest positioning

• Reaction to major moving averages

• Price behavior around crowded strikes

“We’re always more reactionary to what the market is giving us.”

This approach has helped us lean bullish while many investors remained skeptical.

Final outlook: bullish into year-end, cautious into next year

For the remainder of 2025:

• Expect a grind higher

• Watch SPX 7000 resistance

• Buy dips that hold above major moving averages

For 2026:

• Prepare for elevated volatility

• Expect tariff-related inflation pockets

• Watch energy as a risk-off indicator

• Be selective with tech and cyclicals

“We’re probably going to grind higher into year-end... but 2026 could be a struggle.”