Will NVO's U.S. Price Cuts Boost Access & Revive Semaglutide Demand?

Last week, Novo Nordisk NVO announced that its popular semaglutide-based GLP-1 injections, Wegovy (for obesity) and Ozempic (for diabetes), will be offered at a limited-time price of $199 per month for new self-pay patients in the United States, through March 31, 2026. Wegovy’s label includes cardiovascular, HFpEF, liver, and osteoarthritis indications, while Ozempic remains the only GLP-1 approved to slow kidney disease and reduce cardiovascular death in patients with diabetes.

The promotional rate applies to the first two months of treatment at the two lowest doses (0.25 mg and 0.5 mg), after which patients will transition to a newly reduced standard self-pay price of $349 per month, down from $499. The prices of these drugs have also been lowered for existing self-pay patients in the United States to $349 per month. However, the self-pay price for Ozempic 2 mg will remain unchanged at $499.

These pricing changes come ahead of Novo Nordisk’s recent agreement with the U.S. Administration to expand access to obesity and diabetes treatments and lower direct-to-patient prices in 2026, with the company implementing the reduced pricing months earlier than planned. Self-pay options will be available through more than 70,000 pharmacies nationwide, as well as via home delivery through the online NovoCare Pharmacy and select telehealth partners, reflecting an effort to meet patients where they seek care.

The offers align with Novo Nordisk’s broader strategy to steer patients toward authentic, FDA-approved semaglutide treatments and away from potentially unsafe compounded products circulating in the U.S. market, which have weighed on demand for Ozempic and Wegovy and contributed to the company issuing two guidance cuts in 2025.

Additionally, through the early implementation of pricing cuts, Novo Nordisk is also trying to win back market share from its arch-rival Eli Lilly LLY, which markets its tirzepatide-based drugs, Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity).

For commercially insured patients who qualify, Novo Nordisk continues to provide savings programs that reduce out-of-pocket costs to as little as $0 per month for Wegovy or $25 per month for Ozempic, reinforcing a tiered affordability strategy aimed at expanding access while protecting product integrity.

NVO’s Peers in the Obesity Space

Eli Lilly is Novo Nordisk’s fierce competitor in the diabetes/obesity space. Despite being on the market for less than three years, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become LLY’s key top-line drivers. Last month, LLY reported strong third-quarter results, beating earnings and revenue estimates. Mounjaro and Zepbound revenues more than doubled year over year, driven by increased demand. Eli Lilly also raised its 2025 full-year revenue and EPS guidance. In the first nine months of 2025, the drugs generated combined sales of $24.8 billion, accounting for 54% of Eli Lilly’s total revenues.

Several other companies, like Viking Therapeutics VKTX, are also making rapid progress in the development of GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 RA, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity.

In August 2025, VKTX announced mixed top-line results from a mid-stage study evaluating the safety and efficacy of the oral formulation of VK2735, which caused the stock to dip significantly. Viking Therapeutics plans to meet with the FDA before this year’s end to discuss the next steps for oral VK2735. Phase III obesity studies with the subcutaneous formulation of VK2735 are currently underway.

NVO Stock’s Price, Valuation & Estimates

Year to date, Novo Nordisk shares have plunged 44.6% against the industry’s 16.1% growth. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.

NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500

Novo Nordisk is trading at a discount to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 13.06 forward earnings, which is lower than 17.05 for the industry. The stock is trading much below its five-year mean of 29.25.

NVO Stock Valuation

Earnings estimates for 2025 have deteriorated from $3.84 to $3.58 per share over the past 60 days. During the same time frame, Novo Nordisk’s 2026 earnings per share estimates have declined from $3.95 to $3.65.

NVO Estimate Movement

Novo Nordisk currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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