Retail Earnings Roundup: Walmart Scores, Target Slumps in Q3

Mid-November marked the Q3 earnings cycle for many of the world’s biggest retail stocks, including grocery store giants and home improvement heavyweights. Three standouts—Walmart, Target, and Lowe’s—posted fiscal year 2026 Q3 results that highlight diverging momentum in the sector. All data reflects the Nov. 21 close unless otherwise noted.

Walmart Strikes Gold in Q3

Given its stellar performance, it’s difficult not to start this list off with consumer staples behemoth Walmart (NYSE: WMT). The company’s Nov. 20 earnings release led shares to gain 6.5% on the day—the largest single-day gain Walmart has seen after an earnings release since August 2024.

The company's $179.5 billion in revenue beat estimates by more than $4 billion, and its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 62 cents also exceeded expectations of 60 cents. To top it off, Walmart boosted both its sales and adjusted EPS guidance for the full fiscal year.

The company’s emerging growth drivers continued to impress. E-commerce revenue increased 27%, advertising revenue rose 53%, and membership income rose 17%.

Achieving strong growth in these areas is critical, as traditional in-store sales growth will offer a relatively limited opportunity going forward.

Additionally, advertising and memberships are high-margin businesses, creating potential for Walmart to boost profitability in the long term.

Currently, the consensus price target on Walmart sits around $118. Among price targets issued after Walmart’s earnings release, the average is moderately more bullish at over $123, implying approximately 17% upside potential in shares.

Target Misses the Bullseye

On the other side of the equation, home goods and grocery store stock Target (NYSE: TGT) continued to disappoint. The company posted adjusted EPS of $1.78, which beat estimates by 7 cents.

However, sales fell considerably more than expected, and the firm lowered its full-year EPS guidance. It now expects to generate $7.50 per share at the midpoint, compared to expectations of $8 previously. In response to these mixed results, shares fell by nearly 3% on the day of the Nov. 19 release—the fifth straight quarter of post-earnings declines for Target. 

Positive news included advertising revenue rising 44% and non-merchandise sales growth of 18%. However, the company’s digital comparable sales growth was a paltry 2.4%—far less than Walmart and a deceleration from 10.8% growth in the same period last year.

Lastly, the company announced an expansion of its partnership with OpenAI. ChatGPT will soon include the Target App, where customers can get personalized recommendations and checkout using a variety of fulfillment options.

The consensus price target on this stock comes in around $103. However, Wall Street issued a plethora of price target cuts after earnings. Among those issuing updates, the average target is less than $91, implying just 4% upside from current levels.

Lowe’s Gains Despite Lowering Guidance

Lowe’s Companies (NYSE: LOW) provided mixed results in Q3, with its $20.81 billion in sales falling short of estimates by around $70 million. However, the company posted a beat of 9 cents on adjusted EPS.

Although it lowered both its full-year comparable sales guidance and its adjusted EPS guidance, Lowe's raised its total full-year sales guidance to $86 billion, supported by its acquisition of Foundation Building Materials.

Despite significant negatives in the company’s report, markets reacted positively to the EPS beat, as well as the news of the acquisition.

Acquiring Foundation Building Materials positions the company to generate more sales from professional contractors, who typically spend more than do-it-yourself buyers.

Shares of LOW gained by 4% on the day of the Nov. 19 release. Wall Street analysts continue to see solid upside in Lowe's shares. The consensus price target of around $276 implies 18% upside potential. Post-earnings updates have an average target of over $278, suggesting shares could rise 19%.

Walmart to $1 Trillion?

With strong earnings momentum and bullish analyst targets, Walmart is increasingly being discussed as a decisive retail winner in Q3. Shares would need to rise only 19% from their Nov. 21 closing price for Walmart to enter the $1 trillion market-cap club, and Wall Street targets suggest this milestone isn't outside the realm of possibility.

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