ADP Disappoints: -32K Private Sector Jobs Last Month

Wednesday, December 3, 2025

This morning’s big market news comes from the monthly jobs report from Automatic Data Processing ADP. Headline private-sector payrolls came in at a negative -32K for November, below expectations for +40K and the prior month’s upwardly revised +47K. This marks the fourth negative month for private-sector payroll growth in the last six.

It’s also the first time a 4-month trailing average, at -4K currently, has been negative since the early months of the Covid pandemic in 2020. While the survey saw losses in both Goods-producing and Services jobs, -19K and -13K, respectively, it’s real story comes in the breakdown of private businesses by company size:
 

Small Businesses Lose -120K Private Sector Jobs Last Month

All of the headline ADP jobs losses in this morning’s report come from the small-business side (fewer than 50 employees), which reached post-Covid lows of -120K. This is the sixth lower month of the last seven for small businesses, which both points to a real sore spot in our current labor market, and also stands to reason: without the levers and options larger companies have to adjust their profitability, small firms usually only have one — limit or lower payrolls.

Broken down even further, -46K jobs were lost in the private sector for November among companies with fewer than 20 employees. But -74K fewer private-sector positions came from firms with between 20-49 workers. Typically, we see the sub-20 employee company as a Mom & Pop shop, providing niche services like a boutique storefront. Companies between 20-49 workers are often in Construction, Manufacturing, Restaurants and the like.
 

ADP Employment Parsed More Finely

Education & Healthcare posted positive +33K new jobs last month, followed by Leisure & Hospitality at +13K. Among those companies mostly aligned with the small business segment which dropped so many jobs in November, Manufacturing lost -18K positions. Information Services was -20K and Professional/Business Services — often among the top jobs producers — dumped -26K jobs.

Unique to ADP data, Job Stayers stood to make an average of +4.4% more last month, whereas Job Changers gained only +6.3% on average. This is about as slim a curve as we’ve seen since this data has been tracked, and also helps illustrate the calcifying effects of the current labor market with tightening of job opportunities compared with what we were seeing a couple years ago.
 

Import & Export Prices Unchanged in September

Working off the backlog in economic data after 6+ weeks of a federal government shutdown, Import and Export Prices for September have finally hit the tape this morning. On the Import side, 0.0% in pricing came following a downwardly revised +0.1% the prior month, and the lowest in import pricing since -0.1% in June. Exports were also unchanged for the month, from its very slight upward tick reported in August. 

Year over year, Imports were up +0.3% following four months of negative headline figures, but lower than anticipated. Exports were up to +3.8% from a downwardly revised +3.2% and the highest in nearly three years. This points us in the wrong direction from effectively absorbing tariffs in the economy, and remember — this is still only September data we’re discussing. 
 

What to Expect from Today’s Stock Market

Pre-market futures had remained in the green but muted immediately following these data releases, but are falling off a table at the top of the hour, a half hour ahead of the open. At this hour, only the small-cap Russell 2000 remains in the green, +7 points. In the larger indexes, we have moved from +0.2-0.5% to -0.25-0.4%. If this is a reaction to the economic reports, it’s a curiously delayed one.

Initially, a lower ADP jobs number only helps solidify a 25 basis-point (bps) rate cut at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, so we had assumed the positive, if muted, pre-market gains were fairly well founded. But perhaps the specter of an unravelling labor force and overall economic decline is snuffing today’s early bullish sentiment.

We’ll get into today’s Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization numbers for September in our after-market column in this space. Also, final S&P Services PMI and ISM Services results for November are due after today’s open. We can also get into the details of Macy’s M surprise swing to positive +$0.09 per share this morning versus expectations of -$0.13, for a +169% surprise. For more on M’s earnings, click here.

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