Alaska Air to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 23, after market close.

ALK has an impressive earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 33.08%. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news).

Let’s see how things have shaped up for Alaska Air this earnings season.

Q1 Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 loss is currently pegged at 72 cents per share, wider than the loss of 55 cents in the past 60 days. However, the consensus mark implies a 21.7% northward movement from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alaska Air’s first-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $3.19 billion, indicating 42.9% growth year over year.

For first-quarter 2025, ALK anticipates adjusted loss per share in the range of 50-70 cents.

We expect tariff-induced economic uncertainties and the resultant reduction in consumer and corporate confidence to have caused a slowdown in domestic air travel demand. However, with the demand for long-haul travel remaining buoyant, international passenger revenues are likely to have been impressive in the to-be-reported quarter.

Labor costs are also likely to have been high, hurting bottom-line performance in the March quarter. We expect expenses on wages and benefits to increase 64.9% in the to-be-reported quarter from the first quarter of 2024 actuals.

On a brighter note, low fuel costs due to the downtrend in oil prices are likely to have boosted the bottom-line performance. The decline in oil prices bodes well for ALK's bottom-line growth because fuel expenses are a significant input cost for the airline space.

What Our Model Says About ALK

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Alaska Air this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

ALK has an Earnings ESP of -3.40% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Alaska Air Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Alaska Air Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Alaska Air Group, Inc. Quote

Highlights of Q4

Alaska Air reported solid fourth-quarter 2024 results, wherein both earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Quarterly earnings per share of 97 cents outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 47 cents and improved more than 100% on a year-over-year basis. The reported figure exceeded the guided range of 40-50 cents.

Operating revenues of $3.53 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.51 billion. The top line jumped 38.4% year over year, with passenger revenues accounting for 89.9% of the top line and increasing 37% owing to the continued recovery in air-travel demand.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

C.H. RobinsonCHRW has an Earnings ESP of +1.37% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. CHRW is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 30. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.94% upward in the past 90 days. CHRW’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 21.7%. 

Expeditors International of WashingtonEXPD has an Earnings ESP of +3.76% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. EXPD is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 6.  

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.94% upward in the past 90 days. EXPD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 11.6%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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