The Lazy Way to Play NVIDIA's $20B Groq Deal

The financial world shook in late December 2025 when NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) announced a strategic move to lock down Groq’s assets and leadership in a deal valued at approximately $20 billion. For Wall Street, this confirms that the artificial intelligence (AI) boom is evolving from a speculative frenzy into a permanent industrial shift.

When a massive acquisition occurs, the target company's stock price often soars, offering quick gains for shareholders who bought early. But in this case, the door was locked, as Groq is not publicly traded. Retail investors cannot purchase shares of Groq directly on the public exchange, creating frustration for those who sought to capitalize on the deal. 

The only liquid way to capture the value of this deal is through the acquirer, NVIDIA. Yet, betting everything on a single stock carries significant risk, especially with antitrust regulators in the United States and Europe watching the semiconductor sector closely. A blocked deal could send the NVDA stock tumbling.

This scenario creates the perfect storm for semiconductor Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). These funds offer a backdoor entry into the trade, allowing investors to participate in the upside without the stress of managing a single stock ticker. However, not all ETFs are built the same. Understanding the structural differences between ETF strategies like the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SMH) and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SOXX) is critical to portfolio positioning in 2026.

The Winner Takes Most Strategy

To understand why the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is the aggressive choice, investors must first understand the business case behind the merger.

For the last two years, the market has focused on Training AI, building the massive digital brains behind chatbots and data models.

The Groq deal signals a shift to Inference, which is the actual usage of those models to generate instant answers. Groq’s technology acts as a turbocharger for this specific task.

By absorbing this technology, NVIDIA cements its dominance in the next phase of the AI cycle. SMH is structured to reward this kind of dominance because it uses a market-cap-weighted system. This means the larger a company gets, the more influence it has on the fund's performance.

The Superweight Effect

As of late December 2025, NVIDIA constitutes approximately 16% of the SMH fund. This is a significant concentration. For every $1,000 an investor puts into SMH, roughly $210 is a direct wager on the success of the NVIDIA-Groq integration. This lack of a cap is the primary reason SMH is up approximately 50% year-to-date. The fund managers effectively allowed the winner to run, rather than selling shares to rebalance the portfolio.

The Manufacturing Bonus

The fund also offers a secondary benefit: the manufacturing angle. Groq’s high-speed chips require advanced packaging and fabrication to function. The primary beneficiary of this demand is Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM), which makes up roughly 10% of SMH.

Between NVIDIA and TSMC, nearly 31% of the fund is tied directly to the hardware required for this new deal. For investors who believe the biggest companies will keep getting bigger, SMH serves as a high-octane proxy for the AI trade.

The Hedged Play: Broad Exposure for the Supercycle

While SMH chases the leader, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) takes a hedged approach. The key difference lies in its rulebook. SOXX utilizes a capped weighting scheme, meaning no single company is allowed to exceed roughly 8% of the portfolio during rebalancing.

This rule explains why SOXX has lagged its counterpart, returning approximately 42% year-to-date compared to SMH’s 50% gain. Even though SOXX holds NVIDIA, the fund is forced to sell shares when the stock rallies to keep the weight at roughly 8%.

While this limits the upside during a parabolic rally, it offers significant protection against volatility.

The Memory Supercycle

The bull case for SOXX relies on the idea that the AI rally will broaden beyond just one company in 2026. While headlines focus on NVIDIA’s processors, AI models require massive amounts of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). A shortage in this sector has created a pricing supercycle for companies like Micron (NASDAQ: MU). Because a single stock does not dominate SOXX, it offers more equal weighting across these secondary winners.

Networking and Infrastructure

SOXX also provides deeper exposure to Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO). As AI data centers grow, Broadcom's cabling and networking chips become essential. If the Department of Justice or international regulators decide to block the NVIDIA-Groq deal, NVIDIA stock could face high volatility or a sharp correction. In that scenario, the capped structure of SOXX acts as a safety net. It protects the investor from a single-stock crash while still capturing the broader sector rally led by memory and networking stocks.

Choosing Your Strategy for 2026

The choice between these two funds ultimately comes down to an investor's risk tolerance and their view on the regulatory landscape for 2026. The 2025 market data provides a clear picture of where the smart money is currently moving.

Investors have favored the aggressive strategy this year. SMH saw net inflows of over $2 billion, while SOXX experienced net outflows of roughly $4.5 billion. This divergence suggests that institutional investors are currently willing to accept higher risk to chase the performance of the industry leaders.

However, following the herd isn't always the right move for an individual portfolio. Here is a simple framework for deciding which fund fits your goals:

Scenario A: The Bullish Aggressor

• The Thesis: You believe NVIDIA will execute the Groq integration flawlessly and that Inference will be a winner-take-all market dominated by a single player.
• The Pick: SMH. Its uncapped structure ensures you capture the maximum upside of the deal. You are comfortable with the risk that if NVIDIA sneezes, your portfolio catches a cold.

Scenario B: The Cautious Optimizer

• The Thesis: You believe the semiconductor sector will rise, but you worry about trade wars, tariffs, or antitrust lawsuits hitting the biggest players. You want to bet on the Industrial Revolution of AI, not just one company.
• The Pick: SOXX. Its diversified, capped structure mitigates the risk of any single company failing, offering a smoother ride.

Positioning for the Next Phase of Growth

The $20 billion NVIDIA-Groq deal serves as a powerful validation that the semiconductor supercycle is far from over. The innovation engine driving the modern economy is still running hot, fueled by the rapid transition from building AI models to deploying them in the real world.

For investors, the most dangerous decision in 2026 may be having no exposure at all. Whether one chooses the concentrated aggression of SMH or the diversified safety of SOXX, the semiconductor sector remains a cornerstone of a modern growth portfolio. The technology is shifting, and the market is moving with it. By choosing the ETF that aligns with their risk tolerance, investors can ensure they are part of the next leg of the rally.

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The article "The Lazy Way to Play NVIDIA’s $20B Groq Deal" first appeared on MarketBeat.