How Chevron's Expanded Venezuela Oil License Boosts Its Global Play

Chevron Corporation CVX is reportedly in discussions with the U.S. government to expand its license to operate in Venezuela, a move that could allow the company to boost crude exports both to its own refineries and to third-party buyers. The talks come at a pivotal moment, as Washington and Caracas explore a framework to supply up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the United States amid shifting geopolitical and energy considerations.

Chevron remains the only U.S. oil major operating in Venezuela, functioning under a sanctions exemption granted by the U.S. Treasury. However, tighter restrictions imposed in July as part of Washington’s campaign against president Maduro significantly curtailed the company’s exports. Volumes dropped to about 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December from 250,000 bpd earlier, while PDVSA was barred from receiving any export proceeds.

Under the evolving negotiations, proceeds from Venezuelan oil sales are expected to be routed through a U.S. trustee and would be used to finance American goods for Venezuela. The oil embargo would remain in place, even as targeted exemptions are considered.

PDVSA has confirmed it is advancing talks with U.S. authorities under terms similar to Chevron’s arrangements, emphasizing that transactions would be commercial, legal and transparent.

While uncertainty persists, the negotiations signal a cautious recalibration of U.S. energy policy toward Venezuela, with Chevron positioned at the center of any potential shift.

U.S. Energy Firms Expected to Enter Venezuela’s Oil Export Landscape

Beyond Chevron, Washington is exploring ways to reintroduce other U.S. energy companies into Venezuela’s oil export ecosystem.

U.S. refiners such as Valero Energy Corporation VLO are among the companies being considered, having previously sourced crude from PDVSA before restrictions disrupted those relationships. VLO stands to benefit from increased Venezuelan crude supply, as its sophisticated, complex refineries can efficiently process the country’s heavy, high-sulfur oil.

Major oil producers Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM and ConocoPhillips COP are also part of the broader conversation. Both XOM and COP had significant assets in Venezuela that were expropriated roughly two decades ago, and their renewed involvement would mark a notable shift in long-standing tensions. The participation of multiple American firms like VLO, XOM and COP is viewed as a way to stabilize Venezuelan exports and gradually reintegrate the country into global energy markets while still maintaining leverage through conditional licensing and oversight mechanisms.

The Zacks Rundown for Chevron

Shares of Chevron have gained 4.5% in the past month, outperforming the Oil/Energy sector’s decline of 1.2%.

From a valuation perspective — in terms of forward price-to-earnings ratio — Chevron is trading at a premium compared with the industry average. The stock is also trading above its five-year mean of 11.86.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVX’s 2025 earnings is pegged at $7.34 per share, indicating a 27% year-over-year decline.

The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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