Well-known Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) bear Gordon Johnson remains a seller of the electric vehicle company run by Elon Musk. The analyst uses competitors for several sectors to create a new sum-of-the-parts valuation for Tesla's various business lines, including Optimus, FSD, electric vehicles and energy.
The Tesla Analyst: GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson maintained a Sell rating on Tesla stock and raised the price target from $19.05 to $25.28.
The Analyst Takeaways: With fourth-quarter deliveries missing estimates, new vehicle discounts and no more mandate on ZEV credit purchases from auto companies, Johnson said the "earnings math deteriorates quickly" for Tesla.
Johnson highlights Tesla's growing energy generation and storage segment, which saw 12.1% year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter, but argues it's not sufficient to rescue the declining automotive business.
The analyst estimates that Tesla's global deliveries, which fell in 2024 and 2025, were only the beginning. After declines of 1.1% and 7.7% year-over-year for 2024 and 2025 respectively, Johnson estimates that 2026 global deliveries could fall by 15% year-over-year in 2026.
Among the factors hurting Tesla's auto business, according to the analyst, are the loss of the federal EV tax credit in the United States, increased competition in China, and brand erosion in Europe.
"When the story fades, the numbers are left standing alone," Johnson said.
The analyst sees earnings per share and free cash flow falling, and valuation metrics for Tesla becoming harder to forecast now, based on competition in the sectors increasing.
"If autonomy is now a commodity and robots work elsewhere, what exactly is Tesla worth?" Johnson asks.
Johnson argues that Tesla’s Level 2 driver-assistance system remains its only bullish driver, noting that the autonomy and robotics sectors have become increasingly saturated.
"What CES has made painfully clear is that Tesla no longer owns the lead in autonomy or robotics – if it ever did. Nvidia and Uber on autonomy, Boston Dynamics on humanoids: these are narrative companies now doing the narrative thing."
Johnson gives leadership roles to NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) and sees both as beneficiaries after the CES product announcements. The analyst uses some other peer companies like Figure AI, Waymo, Ford and LG Electronics to calculate a sum-of-the-parts valuation for Tesla stock.
Here is the analyst's valuation calculations, which he calls a "generous" sum-of-the-parts valuation:
- Optimus: $12.12 per share
- FSD: $31.09 per share
- Car business: $17.09 per share
- Energy business: $3.54 per share
- Total: $63.85 per share
"Once Tesla no longer leads in robots or autonomy, the story collapses – and the story is the stock. Fundamentals have not mattered for years."
TSLA Price Action: Tesla stock closed at $435.80 on Thursday versus a 52-week trading range of $214.25 to $498.82. Tesla stock is up 10.2% over the last year.
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