Friday, January 9th, 2026
Ahead of today’s open, the final component of “Jobs Week” hits the tape: the December Employment Situation report — non-farm payrolls and unemployment — from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). A headline number of +50K is lower than the estimated +60-70K and lower than the downwardly revised +56K the previous month, but the Unemployment Rate fell -20 basis points (bps) to +4.4%, the lowest we’ve seen since September and the first month over month lowering since June.
Revisions to the prior two months continued to push the narrative of a weakening labor market: November’s +56K dropped by -8K in today’s revision, and October’s dire -105K originally reported only got direr: -173K. Perhaps this is an outlier month, considering the long government shutdown, but this takes the four-month trailing average to +12K jobs gained per month, beneath the already-low +13K averaged in the prior four months.
Private-sector jobs carried much of the weight, as expected: +37K. Government jobs grew +13K, though federal government employment dipped -6K for the month. Healthcare jobs drove the bus at +46K, followed by +28K in Construction and +18K in Social Assistance jobs. Meanwhile, stalwart sectors in jobs growth during the Great Reopening — Leisure/Hospitality and Transportation — fell by -12K and -18K, respectively.
Hourly Wages got back on track: +0.3% month over month and +3.8% year over year. These are good for the workforce overall, but not so much if we're looking for reasons for the Fed to consider cutting interest rates at the end of this month. Average Workweek and Labor Force Participation remained diminutive, at 34.2 and 62.4%, respectively. The U-6 line (aka “real unemployment”) sank to its lowest level since September to +8.4%.
Housing Data Mixed for October
Meanwhile, Housing Starts for October are finally out (delayed by the 6+ weeks of a government shutdown last fall), and dipped -4.6% month over month to 1.25 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units. Somewhat inversely from what we’d grown accustomed to, it was single-family starts which grew +5.4% while multi-family, which had dominated new housing starts in recent reports, dropped -26% in October. The West carried most of these losses, -22%, while the Northeast was -0.6%, the South +1.2% and the Midwest +0.5%.
Building Permits — a proxy for future starts — give us something of a mirror effect of today’s housing starts: although 1.41 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units was down -0.2% month over month, it was up from expectations on better multi-family, +0.4% to 481K seasonally adjusted, annualized units, while single family fell -0.2% to 876K seasonally adjusted, annualized units. Here, the West led by region, +9.1%. The Northeast slipped -1.4%, the Midwest -2% and the South -3.3%.
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