Technology giant Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) saw its stock gain in 2025 with shares up 11.5%. That gain underperformed against several of the leading broad stock market indexes.
A new report on global smartphone market share could set the stock up for strong first-quarter financials.
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Apple Tops Global Smartphone Market
For the first time since 2011, Apple is the lone global smartphone leader, according to preliminary data from Counterpoint Research.
Global smartphone shipments were up 2% year-over-year in 2025, marking a second straight year of global year-over-year gains, according to the report.
Apple led the way for market share at 20%, outpacing the 19% share of Samsung (OTC:SSNLF). Apple and Samsung have been locked in a head-to-head battle for a number of years with the two companies each having a share of 19% in 2023 and a share of 18% in 2024.
Here were the top five market leaders globally and their year-over-year gains.
- Apple: 20%, +10% year-over-year
- Samsung: 19%, +5% year-over-year
- Xiaomi: 13%, no change
- Vivo: 8%, +3% year-over-year
- Oppo: 8%, -4% year-over-year
Apple led the way in the top five for market share and for year-over-year growth.
"In 2025, the smartphone market continued its gradual shift toward higher price tiers, driven by consumers upgrading to premium devices," Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Shilpi Jain said.
The report said markets like Japan, the Middle East and Asia saw growth that helped offset weakness in more mature regions.
Those regions likely helped Apple take the crown as well. Apple's new iPhone 17 played a major role in taking the smartphone lead, while the previous iPhone 16 model saw strong demand in growing markets.
"The iPhone 17 series gained significant traction in Q4, while the iPhone 16 continued to perform exceptionally well in Japan, India and Southeast Asia," Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Varun Mishra said.
Mishra said a strong product mix for Apple supported "rising demand across emerging and mid-size markets."
Global smartphone shipments were up 1% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. Apple led the way with a record 25% market share in the fourth quarter, followed by Samsung (17%).
Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) ranked outside the top five for global smartphone shipments, but turned in a year-over-year gain of 25% according to the report.
Apple Records Ahead
The strong fourth quarter for the calendar year 2025 and market share lead could bode well for Apple stock in 2026, with the first fiscal quarter including the results from October, November and December of 2025.
Apple set several company records with its fourth quarter financial results, which included the month of September and early results from the iPhone 17.
Apple CEO Tim Cook predicted that even more records could be set in the first quarter, which is expected to be reported by the company later this month.
“We are incredibly excited about the strength we’re seeing across our products and services, and we expect the December quarter’s revenue to be the best ever for the company and the best ever for iPhone,” Cook said.
Apple Chief Financial Officer Kevin Parekh helped quantify what Cook meant when he said the first quarter could set records.
“From today, we expect our December quarter total company revenue to grow by 10% to 12% year-over-year, which would be our best quarter ever,” Parekh said.
Apple reported revenue of $124.30 billion in last year’s first quarter, a new company record at the time. The estimated 10% to 12% growth would make this year’s first quarter revenue total $136.73 billion to $139.22 billion.
Analysts currently estimate Apple's first-quarter revenue at $138.31 billion, according to Benzinga Pro.
Parekh said the first quarter would also be “our best iPhone quarter ever,” with iPhone revenue expected to grow “double digits” year over year.
iPhone revenue was $69.14 billion in last year’s first quarter. Based on a 10% growth rate, the total would hit $76.06 billion or more in this year’s first quarter.
For comparison, Apple reported fourth-quarter iPhone revenue of $49.02 billion.
The data from Counterpoint Research supports the commentary from Cook and Parekh on the strength of the iPhone in the last three months of calendar 2025.
Apple's first-quarter financial results could come in ahead of analyst estimates and have some upside based on the smartphone global market share gains.
Photo: hanohiki via Shutterstock
