Broadcom, Marvell In Focus As Semicondcutor Analyst Flags AI-Driven Supply Crunch, Custom Silicon Upside

A fresh look at global semiconductor supply chains is reshaping analyst views as hyperscaler demand accelerates and memory constraints tighten across the industry.

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Hyperscalers Tighten Memory Supply, Prices Rise

After a recent Asia trip, KeyBanc analyst John Vinh updated several semiconductor ratings and forecasts, pointing to hyperscaler-driven demand that is tightening memory supply and reshaping winners and losers across the space.

The analyst said hyperscalers are locking in Dynamic Random-Access Memory (DRAM) and NAND capacity ahead of expected 50% data center bit growth in 2026, pushing contract pricing higher.

He cited DRAM contract price increases of about 25% in the first quarter of 2026 and 10%–12% in the second quarter of 2026, while NAND pricing rises about 20% in the first quarter of 2026 and 10%–15% in the second quarter of 2026.

Outside data centers, Vinh said personal computer (PC) and smartphone Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are struggling to secure supply, with fulfillment rates running roughly 20%–45% versus forecasted demand.

Intel, AMD and AI Infrastructure Names Lead

The analyst said this dynamic supports his most bullish calls on Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (NASDAQ:AMD), upgrading both to Overweight and raising estimates as he sees them largely sold out of 2026 server central processing unit (CPU) capacity, with potential 10%–15% price increases in first quarter of 2026.

He also raised his Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MU) price forecast to $450 from $325, while keeping positive views and higher estimates for names tied to AI compute and infrastructure demand including NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO), Monolithic Power Systems, Inc (NASDAQ:MPWR), Marvell Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MRVL), Cirrus Logic Inc (NASDAQ:CRUS), Lattice Semiconductor Corp (NASDAQ:LSCC), Analog Devices Inc (NASDAQ:ADI), and others.

Broadcom, Marvell And Custom Silicon In Focus

Vinh pointed to custom silicon as another major hyperscaler battleground.

For Broadcom, the analyst said Chip on Wafer on Substrate (CoWoS) supply for 2026 increased to 250K from 190K, a roughly 30% upward revision and about a 250% jump versus 2025, as Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) programs scale.

Vinh added that OpenAI's custom Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) timeline moved to the first quarter of 2027, but he still expects a large lifetime unit opportunity (1.5 million–2 million) that he believes will likely be announced as Broadcom's sixth customer, adding $8 billion–$10 billion to the $73 billion AI backlog.

For Marvell, Vinh said outsized data center demand remains a tailwind. He noted the MTIA V3.5 design win looks less certain than what he heard last quarter, but he still sees Marvell in contention alongside MediaTek and said the update does not represent a fundamental change in Marvell's positioning.

On the negative side, Vinh said higher memory pricing and shortages pressure handset demand and margins, leading him to cut estimates on Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ:QCOM) and flag Arm Holdings Plc (NASDAQ:ARM) as a headwind given his expectation for a 2026 smartphone market contraction.

The analyst also warned that memory constraints and sharp price increases could ripple through PCs, smartphones and autos, even as AI and data center workloads remain the strongest end markets.

AMD Price Action: Advanced Micro Devices stock was up 6.09% at $220.34 at publication on Tuesday.

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