Rivian's 48% Stock Surge Jolted Wall Street - And The Next Big Catalyst May Hit Soon

By Chris Katje | January 16, 2026, 11:42 AM

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock outperformed the market in 2025, despite the company delivering fewer electric vehicle than the previous year. The company's next major catalyst that could send shares higher is coming "soon," according to CEO RJ Scaringe.

Rivian's R2 Deliveries Coming To Consumers Soon

Since unveiling the R2 in March 2024, the new electric SUV from Rivian has been a key talking point for the company and a future catalyst for the stock.

On Thursday, Scaringe shared an update on the highly anticipated electric vehicle.

"R2 manufacturing validation builds are rolling off the line in Normal! Beyond excited to start delivering to customers soon," Scaringe tweeted.

The R2 is a big bet by Rivian, with the company pausing plans for a new Georgia vehicle factory to update its existing Normal, Illinois factory to meet its goal of deliveries in 2026.

With a starting price of around $45,000, the R2 is set to be Rivian's best attempt at taking market share from Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) in the highly competitive low-cost electric SUV market. The Tesla Model Y starts at $41,630 currently and was the bestselling electric vehicle globally in 2025.

Rivian's R1T (pickup truck) and R1S (SUV) have starting prices of more than $70,000, targeting more high-end consumers in the EV market.  

Scaringe's tweet featured pictures of several models and the validation builds are one of the final steps done to ensure the production line can be certified.

Rivian has highlighted the first half of 2026 as its goal for deliveries of the R2 and Scaringe's update looks to validate that timeline.

While the starting price of the standard R2 is expected to be around $45,000, the first models off the production line could be higher-end and more costly models for the first deliveries.

Why Rivian's R2 Matters

Along with being a potential competitor to the Tesla Model Y, the R2 is extremely important to Rivan as a company and to investors.

The company has invested heavily in retooling the Normal factory and has worked to save costs wherever possible to get the R2 to market. Investors and analysts will find out after the first deliveries if the vehicle is profitable for the company at launch and once production reaches scale.

Rivian is targeting annual production capabilities of more than 100,000 units from the Normal, Illinois factory. The Georgia factory could begin construction in 2026 and start production in 2028 with capacity for hundreds of thousands more vehicles.

Rather than delay the production of the R2 by waiting on the Georgia factory, Rivian made a decision to focus on R2 production from its existing facility. The timing could end up working in its favor.

While legacy automakers like Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) and General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) are scaling back electric vehicle production, Rivian could have an opportunity to capture market share in the sector.

The Rivian R1S was the eighth best-selling electric vehicle in the U.S. with 24,852 deliveries, according to data from Kelley Blue Book. This came despite deliveries of the vehicle model being down 7.7% year-over-year.

Rivian reported 42,247 deliveries in 2025, down 18% year-over-year.

With the R2 remaining on track for deliveries in the first half of 2026, Rivian's delivery total could look much different at the end of the year.

RIVN Stock Price

Rivian stock trades at $16.87 at the time of writing, versus a 52-week trading range of $10.36 to $22.69. Rivian shares were up 48.2% in 2025, but have started 2026 with shares trading lower. The R2 catalyst could quickly determine which direction Rivian stock is headed in 2026.

Photo: Shutterstock

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